Intel Update - Feb. 21 - Midnight Sun

Hello, good everyone, and welcome back to the underground. This is the intel update for February 15th through the 21st of 2026. I know that many situation monitors out there may have situation monitoring fatigue, but the situation is not going to monitor itself. This week we seem to be at a pucker factor of about 9.5 as we await the kickoff of what is expected to be a very large bombing campaign in the Middle East. Other than that, we've had quite a few developments in many different areas this week, so let's get right to it. While the focus this week has largely been centered in the Middle East, there have been a few major developments brewing around the world. Over in the United Kingdom, former Prince Andrew was arrested on charges stemming from the release of the Epstein files. So far, he has only been charged with misconduct while holding public office, specifically for disclosing sensitive information to Epstein, which helped in securing financial deals. Andrew has not been arrested for participating in Epstein's human trafficking network. So far, this is just a corruption case, but time will tell how it all works out. Around the continent, civil unrest remains fairly constant g network. So far, this is just a corruption case, but time will tell how it all works out. Around the continent, civil unrest remains fairly constant in a few nations, most notably France this week. Following Antifa beating a man to death in the street last week, various uprising movements have not only formed, but started to take the fight to Antifa. Right now, much of this is taking the form of meeting Antifa's thuggery with even more thuggery, but there are efforts underway to organize against far-left groups throughout France, specifically with regards to many people being fed up with immigration. French politics are always a challenge to describe, but suffice to say that there are many upset people around the continent, and France is often the canary in the coal mine for how close Western civilization is to a much wider societal conflagration. Here at home, domestic strife continues to build as far-left activist groups remain active in many areas. Even though Minneapolis is out of the news cycle at this point, the unrest still continues, or technically not unrest so much as insurgent tactics. Defend 612 and ICE Watch continue to harass and detain average people as the insurge ontinues, or technically not unrest so much as insurgent tactics. Defend 612 and ICE Watch continue to harass and detain average people as the insurgents use their license plate databases to track ICE vehicles. Since many of these vehicles are rental cars, random citizens who rent the vehicles after eyes are being harassed, pulled over, and it's generally targeted by idiots who just want to cause chaos. A few weeks ago, opinions differed quite widely on the logic and mentality of the withdrawal of ICE in Minneapolis. Some people argued that this was a total capitulation by the Trump administration, and others said this was more of a complicated restructuring of forces. But at this point, the facts of the case are undeniable. None of the insurgent groups harassing and targeting citizens such as Defend 612 and Eyes Watch have been shut down or prosecuted in any way. None of the leadership or funding sources of these groups has been impacted in any way. The Minneapolis Police Department is not enforcing the law in your city to protect citizens from these groups, and insurgent groups continue to operate with total and complete freedom of maneuver throughout the city without any sort of tizens from these groups, and insurgent groups continue to operate with total and complete freedom of maneuver throughout the city without any sort of opposition at all from authorities. This reality is not just present in Minneapolis, but most other major cities as well. And due to the child protesters becoming a major problem around the country, these groups are only continuing to expand their membership. These teacher-organized protests have been popping up all around the country for years, but really have come to a head over the past month as students conduct walkouts, in many cases quite literally into busy roadways. Students are being hit by cars on a nearly daily basis around the country because they're running out into the streets during these walkout protests. These protests have been far too numerous for me to list each of them on the slide. Just know that there are several hundred protests at high schools and middle schools around the country each week. Elementary schools are also affected, though these obviously tend to be more organized and led by teachers for ideological reasons, with elementary school children not really being as violent themselves as the high school more organized and led by teachers for ideological reasons, with elementary school children not really being as violent themselves as the high school walkouts have been, which usually involve the throwing of rocks at passing vehicles. Other than the concerns with student activism efforts, there have been several terrorism incidents that have taken place over the past few weeks. I don't have hardly any solid details on any of these, to be honest, as the sourcing for what happened in most of of cases is not exactly reliable. First up, we had a vehicle ramming attack that was conducted at the Mead Substation in Nevada the other night, which involved the self-inflicted death of the assailant, who has been identified as Dawson Maloney, a resident of New York who was reported missing by his family after he became mentally unstable a few days ago. Beyond these basic details, nothing is certain regarding this case, and the exact site that was attacked has not even been confirmed yet, probably for security reasons. Until I have a better grid coordinate for this attack, I'm plotting it at the Mead Substation, which is a major electrical substation for most of the region, and it's the only p coordinate for this attack, I'm plotting it at the Mead Substation, which is a major electrical substation for most of the region, and it's the only potential target that matches the description provided by authorities. So, for most of the details on this one, we're just going to have to wait and see. Similar story in Meridian, where the suspect in the St. Luke's vehicle ramming attack in Meridian is still on the run. No further details have been provided on this, uh, except for the fact that the suspect was wearing a black T-shirt, tan pants, and a surgical mask at the time of the attack. No surveillance footage has been provided yet, though, so we'll have to wait and see until more details come out. Around the country more generally, very strange and suspect incidents have occurred over the past couple of weeks, as one should expect during a time of increased international tension. Flashbangs being thrown at polling places in North Carolina, the mysterious murders of scientists, and random catastrophic internet outages with no explanation provided have been a mainstay over the past few days and weeks, and though none of these incidents appear to be related to one another, times o nation provided have been a mainstay over the past few days and weeks, and though none of these incidents appear to be related to one another, times of increased tension always seem to result in a lot of shadow warfare type games being played, which sometimes spill over into the media headlines. So, all in all, a very busy week around the United States, which is probably going to get even more kinetic once things pop off in the Middle East. Overseas, there is one item of note that I have been focusing on for a couple of weeks now, which I would like to get as many eyes on as possible. This is the case of the detention of two American pilots in Guinea, which have been sitting in a very horrific African prison for almost 2 months now. Fabio Espinal Nuñez and Brad Schlenker were originally arrested after making a fuel stop in Guinea while piloting a charter flight from Suriname to Dubai. They requested permission to land for fuel at Conakry Airport and were granted permission to land. Upon arrival, they were arrested and immediately thrown in prison on unclear national security charges. So far, that's pretty much the entire story that can be verified with some degree of accuracy. The wn in prison on unclear national security charges. So far, that's pretty much the entire story that can be verified with some degree of accuracy. The circumstances of what led up to the arrest are unknown. Nothing is known about the Brazilian family that chartered the flight and was on board at the time of the arrest. Who they are and whether or not they were also arrested is unknown. We also don't really know what the State Department has been doing behind the scenes other than that the pilots have been visited a few times by State Department officials. Officially, the State Department has not publicly acknowledged this case at all. The exact charges that have been filed on the pilots is also not known because in a third world country down near the bottom of the global poverty list, things aren't often as professional as they are in the Western world. The law firm that is negotiating for the pilots has stated that an appeals court did authorize the release pilots on bail, but the military rolled in and forced the court to keep them in jail. This small detail, while strictly hearsay at the moment, is the reason for focusing on this. This is probably why the State Department is drag n jail. This small detail, while strictly hearsay at the moment, is the reason for focusing on this. This is probably why the State Department is dragging their feet on this as well because they don't want to strong-arm a warlord or pay the required bribes to let these guys go. The Guineans originally tried to bag them on drug charges, but they didn't find any drugs or weapons on the plane, so they slapped the general national security charges on them for now while negotiations are ongoing. For additional context, the day before these guys landed, the warlord who had been running the country after seizing power years ago formally decided to attempt to make his dictatorship seem a little bit more legitimate. So he held an election where he won 90% of the vote exactly one day before they landed. So to me, this seems like a classic shakedown move. Dictator solidifies and consolidates his power and snatches a couple of Americans to attempt to get some attention from the United States. And the State Department has not been able to secure their release in a timely manner, so the families of these pilots have gone to the media to attempt to get some eyes on this. I am personally intereste heir release in a timely manner, so the families of these pilots have gone to the media to attempt to get some eyes on this. I am personally interested in this case because nobody deserves to rot in an African prison, and sometimes a small African nation needs to be taught the lesson of why you don't mess with Americans. And even if the State Department won't move with a purpose on this, other means will be used to secure the pilot's safety. Of course, the best possible solution to this crisis would be for the pilots to quietly be released and walk out on their own. But considering the context of a warlord looking to make a name for himself right now, this is probably a much more challenging diplomatic problem to solve than one might think. So, I will continue working this case, and I would say that I will provide updates as they come. However, I also don't want to derail any potential diplomatic solution that may be in the works. But you all know how it goes. 90% of the work in the intel world never gets published because a situation that was being planned for never ended up happening. But the work is still helpful just in case things go sideways any more active approach is needed that was being planned for never ended up happening. But the work is still helpful just in case things go sideways any more active approach is needed at some point. So, hopefully this coming week we can at least get the State Department to acknowledge and confirm some details of the case, and we can have something more solid to work from. The United States has a long history of abandoning their citizens overseas, so this would be a good chance for the White House to get a really good PR victory, which they seem to desperately need right now. So, I'm hoping that we can get these guys out of that prison sooner rather than later. Moving to the Middle East, the United States marches ever closer to a large-scale combat operation or LISKO, otherwise known as war. Just right up front, I personally think that we've passed the threshold for this potentially being a giant bluff. Now, one might be tempted to CYA and say that this is a SIOP, but if it is, it sure fooled me because I think that there are way too many resources in theater for this to be a giant bluff, and I think that honestly, if the White House backs down now, then the Iranians are going to take that as a victory, and they ca to be a giant bluff, and I think that honestly, if the White House backs down now, then the Iranians are going to take that as a victory, and they can say, "Ah, we faced down the Americans, and the Americans blinked first, right?" A lot of egos are driving things for better or for worse, and the Iranians are making a lot of critical mistakes right now on the diplomatic stage. So, my guess is in the next few days we're going to be dropping bombs in that country once again. Of course, until something happens, it's all speculation, right? But even still, this potential conflict looks vastly different from the previous targeting effort of Operation Midnight Hammer. That operation was what we call a deliberate targeting operation, which involved a single sortie of B-2s, which bombed a few nuclear research facilities and storage sites throughout Iran. Most notably, the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility as well as research and production facilities at Fordow. Last time, this was a one-and-done strike, but the exceptionally fast build-up that we've seen over the past few days is a whole other animal. During Midnight Hammer, there were not nearly as many resources deployed to support thos at we've seen over the past few days is a whole other animal. During Midnight Hammer, there were not nearly as many resources deployed to support those strikes beyond the forces that were brought into theater just in case the operation went sideways. This time, however, a massive percentage of the US Air Force has forward deployed to the Middle East. Similarly, more naval forces are maneuvering into position as well to supplement the two carrier strike groups which have been deployed for this operation. Just because I know everyone's going to ask, concerning ground forces, there really isn't any ground combat elements slated for this operation just yet. Again, with the exception of the forces which would be needed to go in for more specific tasks, rescue missions, or other special activities. There has been a lot of talk about potential boots on ground involvement, but right now I'm just not seeing any of that happening. The deployment of troops would be the phase of the operation that would take the most time. It would be the most visible and logistically challenging way of of doing it anyway, and right now there just hasn't been much movement on that front. And considering the sp sible and logistically challenging way of of doing it anyway, and right now there just hasn't been much movement on that front. And considering the speed at which they are moving aircraft and logistics, it certainly looks like the Pentagon is leaning mostly on the air war side of things for this conflict. However, one of the bigger dangers with shrugging this whole thing off as just another case of we're going to drop a lot of bombs and go home is that the elephant in the room has not been addressed. And that elephant is almost certain to cause cascading efforts that will spill out of the region itself. This whole show is really the Israelis' affair, and American involvement is mostly just centered around what they want us to do. In practical terms of how a military operation might be undertaken, this does matter. In other words, if we don't bomb the Iranians to the Israelis' satisfaction, they will handle it themselves, and the world might not take too kindly to the Israelis handling things themselves because they have been wanting to operationally use very special tools in Iran for years. And as far as scuttlebutt goes, enough old spooks have talked about it over the past few mon o operationally use very special tools in Iran for years. And as far as scuttlebutt goes, enough old spooks have talked about it over the past few months that it's probably safe to discuss at this point, but some general rumors were flying last year when the first round of strikes were being planned, which is the quiet reason as to why I myself was so invested in monitoring that situation. Again, this is all conjecture that can't be confirmed whatsoever, so just take this with a giant grain of salt, but it may help you understand why we're doing this the way we're doing it, and why we're doing it right now. Last year, word got out at the time that Operation Midnight Hammer was actually conducted because the Israelis threatened to detonate a nuclear device at Natanz, and thus eliminate the problem of a lot of bunkers underneath the very large mountain. Trump signed off on a single sortie of B-2s because he was kind of backed into a corner with the potential operational use of a nuclear warhead in modern war, and they probably had him in other ways as well. And since no other nation on Earth would shed any tears for the Iranians being bombed, the Pentagon went ahead with the operatio n other ways as well. And since no other nation on Earth would shed any tears for the Iranians being bombed, the Pentagon went ahead with the operation so as to get Netanyahu off his back, and hopefully satisfy the Israelis for some time. Turns out the strikes weren't as effective as first thought, which gave the Israelis even more evidence to argue for the use of nuclear weapons at specifically at the Fordow, Parchin, and Natanz facilities. If the United States can't get the job done with the biggest and baddest conventional bombs ever made, then it's not out of the question for the Israelis to want to use their unconventional weapons. So, again, all rumor, but it's a rumor that is basically the baseline assumption for American military policy in the Middle East these days. As in, this isn't just what people are screeching about in some online schizo forum post, this is what very serious people in the world are are considering right now. Fast forward to today, the end of February 2026, and we're back on the Ayatollah's doorstep once again, but with very different weapons this time. You don't use F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, F-18s, and F- 35s to strike bunker facilities. I mean, you can, b again, but with very different weapons this time. You don't use F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, F-18s, and F- 35s to strike bunker facilities. I mean, you can, but most of the time you're going to be using these aircraft to neutralize an enemy's air force and strike other more conventional targets that are above ground. Also, a lot of these resources are probably allocated for the defense of Israeli airspace, because if we recall during Midnight Hammer, the Israelis actually did get hammered pretty hard themselves, simply due to the saturation of Iranian missiles that were actually able to make it through their air defenses. Turns out the US Navy was able to shoot down a lot of those missiles, but not all of them. So, they probably don't want to chance it this time around, and the US Air Force is happy to oblige and defend Israeli airspace. So, now we find ourselves again, even without anything happening yet so far, we now find ourselves examining how quickly all of this has changed, which is probably the biggest indicator that something, whatever it is, something has the president and the whole national command authority very concerned. Personally, I think it's due to time constraints. I thi er it is, something has the president and the whole national command authority very concerned. Personally, I think it's due to time constraints. I think the Israelis have gotten completely impatient, and they're not willing to wait any longer, so the United States does not have the time to slowly build up forces in the Middle East over a period of like 4 months like they did in Venezuela, right? They're acting with a lot of speed here, and it seems like there's a time constraint behind a lot of this. And it may be time to the Israelis just losing patience, honestly. That's probably it. I mean, we've seen the very strong shift away from any kind of real like justification for going to war in the Middle East again. First, it was the Iranian nuclear program, and now it's just straight up regime change without any, you know, real pretense for justifying it. For example, this morning the US Embassy in Baghdad posted a propaganda poster that basically just throws off the pretense that this is about the Iranian missile or nuclear program. This is about regime change because the Israelis don't like a regional power existing that they don't have complete and total control over, much less on is is about regime change because the Israelis don't like a regional power existing that they don't have complete and total control over, much less one in their own backyard, which is fair enough from their perspective, but for the rest of us it's a little concerning that one, we have to be involved at all, and two, if we don't do what they say hard enough for a couple of seconds at least, we'll be able to read a newspaper at midnight all the way over in Baghdad. So, overall the strategic vision here is not really clear and because of that it's hard to say what they're going to strike. It would make sense to strike the nuclear facilities that they struck before because they rebuilt a lot of those. It would also make sense to strike a lot of the facilities that they have been observed to be fortifying over the past few weeks. That would make a lot of sense as well. That's probably what they're going to do, but again also the wild card is what the Israelis are doing and how much patience they have left. We might see a bright star emerge over the Parchin facility or we might not. I don't know. I know that it might be a little bit concerning to just kind of casually mention that the Is over the Parchin facility or we might not. I don't know. I know that it might be a little bit concerning to just kind of casually mention that the Israelis might actually nuke a few places in Iran this time around. I try not to dwell on it too much because well, for one it's, you know, it's really just conjecture, but also it's something that can be very easily sensationalized if you don't understand the wider context of how serious things are. So, I would really prefer to focus on the more practical side of things. And in that case, there are a lot of ifs. If the United States conducts very bare minimum strikes on a few airfields and the Iranians respond in kind with a few dozen missile launches on American bases and Israeli territory, then we'll probably be all right, all things considered. If that's the case, then it'll probably be more like Operation Midnight Hammer 2, just a lot bigger scale and the Iranians might hit back a little harder, but other than that, daily life won't change much here at home. However, if the United States carries out what is planned and the Israelis aren't satisfied with that operation, they might just kick a hornet's nest that ignites a more region tes carries out what is planned and the Israelis aren't satisfied with that operation, they might just kick a hornet's nest that ignites a more regional conflict. And honestly, this is the most serious if that the events of the past year or so have made me think might actually be closer to reality than anyone is really comfortable with. If the Israelis think that they can get away with it, they will absolutely detonate a nuclear warhead at Natanz and blame the Iranians for it. Again, this is the most dangerous COA, not the most likely. It's the most dangerous. And hopefully, we can avoid all that, but these are the big ifs that, you know, I myself have on the big board to kind of plan for. It doesn't really take a genius to understand that anytime something happens in the Middle East with that word nuclear, there's going to be a lot of people hopping all over social media trying to sell you a Nord VPN subscription and some freeze-dried food that tastes like garbage. So, just be aware that this is going to be very sensational. It probably already is sensationalized in the media, but just be advised, this is one of those things that people tend to latch on to because, well, I mean, i bly already is sensationalized in the media, but just be advised, this is one of those things that people tend to latch on to because, well, I mean, it's kind of a big deal. For us here at home and thus outside the potential blast zone, we're definitely in a period of time where situational awareness is paramount. Scientists are getting murdered, vehicles are ramming into substations, random polling places are being targeted. Sketchy stuff is a foot all around the country at this point. So, for the next couple of weeks, standard preparedness practices apply and I myself am keeping my head on a swivel due to the potential for things overseas to affect the homeland. There is no need to freak out or anything, but just be aware that things might start happening rather quickly when and if this conflict pops off. Just like last time, but probably a little bit more serious this time around. I myself think it's a great opportunity to recheck last-minute preps and make sure everything still works. Top off the gas tank, PMCS, change the batteries in your optics, all kinds of stuff like that, right? Since my wheelhouse tends to be in the realm of information, that's usually what I'm personall es in your optics, all kinds of stuff like that, right? Since my wheelhouse tends to be in the realm of information, that's usually what I'm personally focused on making sure that I can manage even when everything is going sideways. One of the ways that we can do this, one of the tools in the toolbox, is radio. How about that for a segue? The Ghost Net was organized for expressly this purpose, being able to exchange information of a strategic nature even when things like internet services are down. It's always rather interesting to note that right before the US is about to do something big in the Middle East, online platforms are dropping like flies. Amazon Web Services and Cloudflare inevitably go down for a period of time and annoy everybody. Thus, the importance of having at least something prepared that we can lean on to exchange information in case things get spicy. But more specifically, with a potential war in the Middle East, this tool fits the job because it's not really just a prepping ham radio network for localized radio comms. This whole project is intended to be able to relay messages around the world without the internet at all. Resiliency when everything is collapsi omms. This whole project is intended to be able to relay messages around the world without the internet at all. Resiliency when everything is collapsing and nothing works is not an easy feat to achieve, but over the years, I think we've got a lot more prepared than we used to be and we can now transition semi-seamlessly into a state of chaos and still keep a lot of capabilities at the same time. On a more practical standpoint, I do have all of the mapping data that you have seen here today available as KMZ files for loading into A-Tac if you want. For the more professional situation monitors, I also have a lot of content on ArcGIS if you just want to stream it uh through a web browser or something like that, you can certainly do that if you want. And I've uh set up the dashboard to be more Iran-centric over the next few days, so just a little tool if you've got like a spare monitor or something, it's kind of cool to have up in the background. But for those who just want the raw data, I update these KMZs pretty much every day and I will have something that is a lot easier to use on this front very soon. Fun fact, for anyone who wants the same maps and the raw data that I often use i l have something that is a lot easier to use on this front very soon. Fun fact, for anyone who wants the same maps and the raw data that I often use in the wire reports, this is what I'm using to brief off of most of the time. A lot of you have asked about what and what maps I'm using. I'm using A-TAC. If you were to download A-TAC and load in my KMZs, you'll have pretty much the same base level data that I have. And though you can't see it during a wire report, every single one of these points has metadata. So, you can actually see what the point is. You don't have to just rely on the symbology because I know the, you know, military standard 2525 symbology is not really a common thing. So, if you load in the actual data itself, or if you go to my ArcGIS maps and just click on one of the icons, you can actually see what it is. And in most cases, there's a brief description, a title, and probably a link for you to click as well, so that you can get the primary source material for why that point is at that location. For some of my layers, I can't actually do that due to copyright reasons. And a lot of law firms really don't want me mapping the locations in the United States which are s, I can't actually do that due to copyright reasons. And a lot of law firms really don't want me mapping the locations in the United States which are helping to aid and abet illegal immigration. So, I've had to kind of tone that one down a little bit while I'm trying to figure out a better way of doing that. But anyway, for all the data that I have showed you, it's all there for you if you want it. So, anyone who's interested can download my KMZs from my GitHub page. Pretty much everything that I post to ArcGIS, I also upload as a raw KMZ. Anyone who's interested can download my KMZs from my GitHub page and have a few different data layers just to have on hand just in case it helps. Anybody who uses A-TAC might struggle to realize, "Oh, what is this app used for?" Well, download my KMZs, load them in, and you'll see it. It does really help. And for those of you on Patreon who are helping me test out some things, you don't need to do anything special. Just follow the instructions in my guide and my real-time data and the KMZs will all load into A-TAC automatically. But more to come on that later. For everybody else, all of my research in text format can be found on my Obsidian page load into A-TAC automatically. But more to come on that later. For everybody else, all of my research in text format can be found on my Obsidian page sorted by each day's wire reports. Information and geospatial data is just one tool in the toolbox among many others, and I'm working on improving the access to real-time information as best I can over the coming weeks. Because that's the whole point of a lot of this work, isn't it? To be able to have enough information to make decisions when seconds count instead of just doom-scrolling social media all day and reacting to the outrage of the week. Over the next few weeks, we'll do what we can to improve on being more proactive and hopefully keep improving the baseline of staying far ahead of the curve, no matter what happens. So, let's get after it and turn the information around us into a productive tool and and not just something to react to after the fact. It's not easy, but I think we can do it, and we can always do better. So, that's all I have for today. Thank you again to all of you for sticking around. I really do appreciate all of your support, and I'll see you next time. And as always, fight in the shade.