Ukraine War Update: On The Landing Grounds

hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground this is the ukrainian war intelligence update for saturday the 26th of february 2022. so let's get right to it i don't have too much information coming out of europe today i've really been focused on trying to figure out where the front lines are but there has been some pretty big news with regards to sanctions the eu has stated that they will be closing european union airspace to all russian aircraft we're still waiting on a bit of clarification on that because that would mean that more or less the entire continent of europe's airspace would be closed to russia and that would actually be a pretty significant move to counter russia's actions in ukraine but again russia would have had to have planned for this and could have guessed that this would happen so who really knows if this is going to affect russia that much plus russia has a lot of trading partners out in the far east and in the rest of asia so really trying to figure out what this is going to mean for russia and what the actual details are the european union has also agreed to cut off some russian banks from the swift banking system which i will admit i did not thin he actual details are the european union has also agreed to cut off some russian banks from the swift banking system which i will admit i did not think they would do but again we will have to see what banks get cut off with these sanctions because as with all sanctions the devil is in the details and we'll have to actually go through and read the actual documents and not a news story on the documents to see what is actually going to happen to russia with regards to sanctions in russia alexander chulakov was found dead this morning allegedly taking his own life i say allegedly because much like other powerful figures in the world top-ranking politicians oligarchs and important people in russia do not normally meet to their end by natural or their own causes and alexander tulikov was the financial director for the entirety of gazprom russia's biggest energy monopoly and is the largest natural gas company in the world along these same lines and because i didn't have anywhere to put it there are rumors of dissension within the top-ranking politicians in russia again with propaganda flying everywhere from all sides at this point it's really hard to say what is actually going on and it i politicians in russia again with propaganda flying everywhere from all sides at this point it's really hard to say what is actually going on and it is very unlikely that we're going to have any kind of information gathering capability behind closed doors in russia's top political sphere however rumors are running rampant right now that a lot of dissension is breaking out between some of the old guard in russian political structures and some of putin's closer friends and associates and things like that a lot allegedly a lot of people were kept in the dark in russian high society with regards to this ukraine situation and they're not too happy about it because like we're getting ready to talk about in a bit uh the invasion is not exactly going as smoothly as one would have hoped right it's not a complete and decisive uh conflict just yet uh russia is having to fight for every inch of terrain they get uh for the most part we'll talk about that again in on the fronts but i just wanted to mention that there are inklings of some dissension going on within within russia's political sphere much like the rest of europe which is completely and utterly disorganized in shambles with regards t going on within within russia's political sphere much like the rest of europe which is completely and utterly disorganized in shambles with regards to the sanctions like i mentioned last time things aren't exactly perfect in russia either so i guess we'll have to see what comes of this we'll be on the lookout for any kind of indicators of squabbling going on but really i just wanted to point it out because it might be an it might be a factor for how this ukrainian conflict goes in the future i'm going to skip over the naval updates for today because i don't really have anything constructive to add and we'll talk about the black sea here in just a bit but moving on to the overall operating picture intel gaps are many and wide regarding the positions of the front lines at this stage russia continues her assault on all fronts though there has been a measurable decrease in the speed at which forces have been moving many russian units have been scattered on various fronts or are black on logistics like food water and ammunition much like yesterday russia's advance seems to be the most speedy down south along the crimean front but this is likely due to the open terrain and lack of signi yesterday russia's advance seems to be the most speedy down south along the crimean front but this is likely due to the open terrain and lack of significant populated areas to hold up the russians in places like urban centers or the more densely populated areas around the country russian forces are being observably bogged down by both ukrainian military actions and civilian efforts to slow their advance as to whether or not this will be effective enough time will have to tell on that again we are continuing to see russian forces being sent into action piecemeal which if you step back and look at things from a historical perspective is almost morbidly ironic considering the historical significance of this exact terrain it was almost 80 years ago that the german sixth army was advancing across what is now ukraine to fight that battle that would decide their fate at stalingrad which was renamed as volgograd after the war and both belligerents of the current war are echoing some of the same tactics used by both sides during the conflict during world war ii ukraine is taking the fight to the cities and letting their invader come deeper and deeper into their territory so that she stretch uring world war ii ukraine is taking the fight to the cities and letting their invader come deeper and deeper into their territory so that she stretches her supply lines thin russia is echoing the ghost of yetumenka by not taking advantage of the doctrine of massing her forces sending relatively smaller units into battle piecemeal when she should and could be sending in massive coordinated waves of troops ukraine on the other hand is a much smaller and more disadvantaged force but still somehow is managing to deny the russians the air even if it is mostly with shoulder-launched man pads russia seemingly ignorant or dismissive of the importance of air power has not yet dedicated enough aerial forces for this conflict and is now beginning to pay the price for it russia also largely relying on speed and rapidly advancing armored columns have begun to realize that a blitzkrieg might be an effective tactic but it requires fuel and logistics to make it work and putin surrounding himself with yes men instead of people who know what they are doing might be a pretty big reason for the losses that have been sustained taking the initiative to rapidly pierce deep into enemy terrain has been pr doing might be a pretty big reason for the losses that have been sustained taking the initiative to rapidly pierce deep into enemy terrain has been proven to withstand the test of time in the field of warfare but it does have its downsides punching deep into enemy terrain is all fine and dandy until you realize that you have no supplies and you are deep inside enemy terrain i think that all of these observations are utterly fascinating to those who study history and though i certainly don't think that this is an exact parallel to the stalingrad campaign these observations are plain as day to us here so i just wanted to point this out to anyone who might also be thinking along the same lines both the ukrainians and the russians are cherry-picking the best and sometimes the worst parts of their own history in order to fight this war before we get to each front let's briefly examine the iff markers that russia has been observed to be using since we're getting a lot of questions about this for the most part russian forces are using alphanumeric letters to identify friend or foe or iff this is extremely common for all militaries to do and extremely important for russia because ukraine h umeric letters to identify friend or foe or iff this is extremely common for all militaries to do and extremely important for russia because ukraine has pretty much the same equipment so having some measure to tell each other apart is important however there has been some variation between the iff markers used some units stationed in the east have the letter v on their vehicles some from crimea have the letter o like the forces from belarus so just remember that as you see the thousands of videos or pictures that are coming out there's a little bit of variation between these on the northeastern front more or less a united front has emerged with russian forces linking up from cherniv konotop sumi and kharkiv i do want to caveat that by saying there's a big uncertainty bubble right there in the middle between kanotop and cherniv because we don't exactly know if this link up has occurred or not the troops in konatop have have been experiencing great difficulties just surviving over the past day or so so we don't really know if this nice flip we have drawn on the slide here is an accurate line or we don't we don't know if this is a complete line or if this is just pockets of front line flip we have drawn on the slide here is an accurate line or we don't we don't know if this is a complete line or if this is just pockets of front lines as russia moves forward either way this has occurred with great difficulty and at great cost to the russians like i mentioned locals in the vicinity of kanatop are reporting that russians are scavenging for fuel and supplies lots of single tanks and single btrs are also noticed to be driving around sometimes instead of in column form i don't know if this is an isolated event but it seems like some units in countertop have gotten lost or been the only survivors of their column it's hard to say the situation is far too fluid to make a judgment call either way but it is certain to say that the situation is quite serious in countertop for the russians this grants a little bit of credence to our earlier assessments that russian logistics are not nearly adequate enough for a slow-paced assault plus the downsides of russian doctrine are coming out now heavily relying on the battalion tactical group while an adequate tool for the task of invading a nation like ukraine still presents problems when it comes to the allocation of logistics brin group while an adequate tool for the task of invading a nation like ukraine still presents problems when it comes to the allocation of logistics bringing in btgs from all over russia and having them work together in a non-traditional command structure has got to be a logistical nightmare in other words the russian army is right now figuring out their logistical limits and they are figuring it out the hard way so over the coming days we will see how big of a problem logistics will be for the russians along the central part of the northeastern front sumi has been retaken by ukrainian forces with the assistance of local citizens who have been helping with the defense of their city with kiev being a primary target russia appears to have made the decision to break contact with ukrainian forces in the vicinity of sumi or tie up ukrainian forces so that other armor divisions can maneuver around sumi and head for kiev this is an interesting play for anyone who knows what the word salient means so if russia has indeed decided to encircle and bypass sumi this could be a significant vulnerability that ukraine could exploit if they try this tactic in other places along the eastern front not m bypass sumi this could be a significant vulnerability that ukraine could exploit if they try this tactic in other places along the eastern front not much new information to report it looks like a lot of the civilians out east have already started to kind of move away from the area so information is going to be kind of spotty probably from here on out on the eastern front we do know that an amphibious landing did occur in the vicinity of marapol though we don't know any other details besides that but this amphibious landing will be important for the rest of the southern front which we'll talk about now along the southern front the situation remains much the same with kirsan still in ukrainian hands though there is fighting in the city right now in the city might have been lost over the past few hours it's hard to tell there are also reports of russian troops fighting in miyakev right now just to the north of kirusan but again it's really uncertain and the front line is very fluid in this area so we'll have to wait and see what the line actually turns out to be and probably by tomorrow or a few days from now it's possible that russian troops are doing what they have done up in the no actually turns out to be and probably by tomorrow or a few days from now it's possible that russian troops are doing what they have done up in the northeast in sumi where some russian forces encircle a city and tie up ukrainian forces while other russian units maneuver around and bypass the city entirely whether or not russia has the forces to keep doing this leapfrog action remains to be seen but it seems to be attacked that they have started to use in the past couple of days along the eastern portion of the southern front advances continue to be made in the vicinity of mara pole and like i mentioned the amphibious forces that have landed in the vicinity of marapol will be very much needed in order to secure the city remember here in the south this terrain is wide open and this kind of terrain is exactly where russia maintains an overwhelming advantage which is why their advance has been so fast however that advantage rapidly diminishes in the urbanized areas and in areas that require the use of paratroopers to win decisively which we will talk about when we get to kiev along the western front not very much new to report moldova continues to accept refugees as does romania hungar we will talk about when we get to kiev along the western front not very much new to report moldova continues to accept refugees as does romania hungary and slovakia so there's that for those who are concerned about refugee movement in transnistria we've tried to do some digging and get to the bottom of what's been going on there and it looks like russia only has about one or two btgs worth of troops there so maybe maybe a thousand troops top that's just kind of a rough guess so that's really not enough to do anything with in fact the tensions with moldova right now moldova the rest of moldova supporting ukraine in this conflict that tension there has probably got those russian troops and transnistria a little bit more concerned with their own security than was conducting any kind of operation within ukraine plus just looking at the map the southwestern portion of ukraine is very much a low population density area so they've got to punch a long way before they actually get to anything that's militarily significant so is probably going to be very much an irrelevant front uh for this conflict but again we'll still keep an eye on it and see what goes on with russia taking more and more to be very much an irrelevant front uh for this conflict but again we'll still keep an eye on it and see what goes on with russia taking more and more losses there's no telling what they might do up north on the northwestern front limited fighting has been observed within the outskirts of kiev but again we have one of those little uncertainty bubbles here because the terrain between chernobyl and kiev is highly dynamic and very fluid at this moment so we don't really know what's going on uh in in the area between chernobyl and kiev uh just other than fighting is occurring but it's it's very sporadic it's not like there's a fluid front line that we can draw for you but let's get into kiev in kiev proper fighting has broken out all around the city today as russian forces continue their attempts to use helicopter assault forces to conduct air assault operations to seize and hold critical targets that will allow fixed-wing operations bringing in even more troops efficiently in other words for those of you who don't speak staff officer russia has been putting a lot of troops on a lot of helicopters and flying them into locations near airports so that they can seize the airports and ther sia has been putting a lot of troops on a lot of helicopters and flying them into locations near airports so that they can seize the airports and therefore allow bigger aircraft to land and offload troops and supplies the fight for kiev might be a long and drawn out affair so russia is going to have to seize all of the airports in the area for that fight to actually be a victory russia has also been conducting many devastating airborne paratrooper drops for the same reason and i say devastating because these attempts have been very costly for the russians ukrainian forces have learned quite a bit and have been taking advantage of every weapon system that they have and concentrating those weapon systems in and around all prospective paratrooper landing zones there are only so many places a helicopter or a paratrooper can land which is something that the ukrainians know full well and the russians learned today ukraine even shot down two il-76 over kiev today both of which were allegedly fully loaded with russian paratroopers we're still waiting on photos of the wreckages to confirm this with any certainty as always but that might take a while since one wreckage apparently came down a waiting on photos of the wreckages to confirm this with any certainty as always but that might take a while since one wreckage apparently came down a few miles outside of kiev in the vicinity of vasilkev and the other much further south about 20k out from the city if this is true and two il-76s have been shot down by a ukrainian su-27 as is being claimed this is going to sting for russia as these can carry between 150 and 200 paratroopers depending on configuration and what the pilot is willing to fly with as far as weight numbers wise it's not a huge blow to the forces that have already been committed for the invasion russia has hundreds of il-76s but it's not nothing more importantly this indicates that the ukrainian air force might still have some fight left in them maybe though i'm not really sure how but this definitely proves that russia has not been able to achieve aerial superiority in the skies over kiev just yet aerial superiority which will 100 percent be a requirement for this invasion to go much further also in kiev civil defense preparations by civilians are fully underway with dozens of photos and videos showing the thousands of molotov cocktails that civilians have l defense preparations by civilians are fully underway with dozens of photos and videos showing the thousands of molotov cocktails that civilians have prepared for the upcoming urban fighting molotov cocktails are a cheap and easy munition to make and one which is devastatingly effective against pretty much all armored vehicles when massed in concentration as has been observed during the ukrainian war so far 30 or 40 ukrainian citizens with 30 or 40 molotov cocktails in their hands taking on a single btr might not seem that effective but so far in the previous fighting this has been observed to be a very valuable tactic and that's not considering the psychological effectiveness of such a crude but gruesome weapon system additionally the interior ministry of ukraine has asked all citizens to turn off their cell phones or only use them in emergencies due to russia's capabilities to detect cell phone signals and therefore detect large groups of people which could be targeted easily again this highlights how important electronic warfare has become in modern conflict and how even civilians must consider the risks that their smartphone brings to the table along the civilian front not too as become in modern conflict and how even civilians must consider the risks that their smartphone brings to the table along the civilian front not too many changes from yesterday although i would like to point out that ukraine's neighbors to the west poland slovakia hungary romania and moldova have been more than willing to accept ukrainian refugees there hasn't been any hang-ups on this on this part other than the traffic to get to the border it looks like that's going pretty smoothly right now but again we have to remember that even though it's a good thing to see nations stepping up and taking uh people away from combat zones who don't want to be in combat zones right it's good to see european nations accepting refugees from this conflict right we also have to remember that europe is a political entity and nation states are political entities and this invitation might not last uh forever so unfortunately we have to think about things like this as we know the invitations for afghan refugees just four months ago was handled with not as much good-naturedness as one might have hoped from european nations now again the afghan culture and the ukrainian culture is very different so i t as much good-naturedness as one might have hoped from european nations now again the afghan culture and the ukrainian culture is very different so i think that kind of a side note is the reason why nations in europe are kind of hesitant to take afghan refugees is because of cultural reasons but and and of course historical political stuff um but i do just want to point out that hey even though nation states are doing the right thing right now or at least trying to with regards to refugees that might not be the case forever just wanted to point that out and that's pretty much all i've got for now we've as a side project been working on a sort of a briefing of or this might just turn into a slide on one of these briefs of information that encapsulates world events that have happened while the world's eyes have been on ukraine because a lot of people are asking and rightfully so what else is happening while the world is you is distracted with ukraine and the answer is kind of a lot a lot of things are happening around the world everybody's asking us what do you think is going to happen about china what are they going to move on taiwan now because of this i don't know it seems like to 's asking us what do you think is going to happen about china what are they going to move on taiwan now because of this i don't know it seems like to answer that question just while i'm here i don't know i don't think so at the moment more than likely what china is going to do is wait a little bit longer and see what other sanctions europe comes up with because again russia and china are very different nations russia before this conflict and before their ruble dropped down to the bottom russia was not in as severe dire straits economically as china is china is barely functioning economically right now they've had a lot of economic problems and again the fight for taiwan is going to be a lot different fight than the ukrainian conflict so yes it is a valid concern to think that we might be witnessing global conflicts kicking off here but at the same time i would also like to stress that the fight for taiwan is going to be very very different and the nature of it's different is different strategically different operationally and different tactically so i don't think that is much of a concern at this stage that might change tomorrow who knows nobody really knows what china is going to t tactically so i don't think that is much of a concern at this stage that might change tomorrow who knows nobody really knows what china is going to do so i guess we'll have to call that and play that by ear as far as other stuff going on around the world we're also keeping an eye on the united states that is for us who for for those of us who are located here in the united states that is a much more pressing concern than ukraine even though ukraine's the ukrainian wars impacts are being felt here in the united states in the form of cyber attacks and just uncertainty and of course the market implications but some of the stuff that's been going on in the u.s with regards to um tracking protesters and intelligence collection on uh american citizens on u.s soil some of that stuff we'll have to get into a little bit deeper as time goes on i just wanted to let everybody know that we are thinking about it we are seeing this stuff and we're not neglecting it uh just because ukraine is still going on um we're trying to get as much out there as we possibly can but again we're a pretty small team here so we're doing what we can so again that's all i've got for right now thanks again everyon as we possibly can but again we're a pretty small team here so we're doing what we can so again that's all i've got for right now thanks again everyone for your support and we'll see you next time and as always fight in the shade