The Wire - December 6, 2023

this is the wire for 1530 Zulu December 6th 2023 precedences routine information cut off is 14:30 bottom line up front Venezuela begins preparation for operations within esbo beginning with international events on the European front in Germany the ministry of the interior for the state of Saxony anal has mandated that all naturalization candidates must declare their support for Israel as part of the naturalization process specifically those seeking German citizenship in this region will be required to provide a written statement declaring their support for Israel if this oath is not provided this will lead to the denial of naturalization for those seeking German citizenship analyst comment the documentation released so far indicates that candidates are not free to choose their own wording as local authorities have been mandated to set the specific wording used in the oath sworn to Israel on the South American front Venezuela demonstrates several indications and warnings of an impending Invasion Venezuela has has declared the esaka region to be Venezuelan territory and has added the region to their official national map several officials have also declared that Venezuela will be creating a military zone in the region and issuing new ID cards to those living in remote Villages throughout the area analyst comments for this wire in terms of a military Invasion the actions by Venezuela may not result in much news due to the remote nature of the terrain most of this region is Uncharted Territory there are no major cities or major highways in this disput area with the region hosting some of the largest untouched jungle on the continent as such Venezuela can dominate the terrain by creating Ford operating bases and critical areas by which oil surveys can be protected from these centers of gravity Venezuelan troops can occupy the region without exercising complete control over every inch of the terrain this may be good enough for Venezuela's oil pursuing intentions but this does present vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a much smaller Force however this extremely remote Terrain means that Venezuela's actions can technically be described as an invasion or occupation but will likely not take the form that many might think small groups of Venezuelan troops have already entered this area over the past few years under the guise of combating illegal mining so SP sporadic Venezuelan presence in the region is not unheard of for more significant operations Venezuela May Place fobs or firebases in the middle of the Jungle and operate for weeks with no opposition what is likely to occur first is the establishment of forward arming in refueling points or farps near the border or just inside the esoko this will be crucial to allow Venezuelan troops Logistics hubs to refuel and Stage operations for the construction of bases of operations within the region regarding concerns this Invasion may have for the home front the nation state of Guyana is largely influenced by the controlling interests of Exxon Mobile due to the extremely oil Rich nature of the region but especially since the discovery of extensive petroleum fields in 2015 Exxon Mobile produces a total of roughly 600,000 barrels per day from the nation of Guyana including extensive offshore production facilities as a reminder for perspective OPEC plus recently announced a voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day on top of the 1 million Barrel per day cut already in place the seriousness of this situation could influence the global oil markets in ways not previously anticipated as Venezuelan military operations raised the stakes of an already tumultuous oil Market history confirms that petroleum Wars tend to result in large scale combat operations at some point the gravity of which is usually ignored by a populace in the days leading up to a regional configration the palpable irony of a large military power potentially invading their much smaller oil Rich neighbor due to historical territory claims may ring Hollow for much of the American people but unstable or high gas prices might result in more direct consequences being felt here at home though the atmospherics of the region fail to capture the gravity of the situation on the ground right now it is too early to determine how far Venezuela will go and how other power players in the region will respond to these recent developments this concludes the wire for 1530 Zulu December 6th 2023