ATP 2-33.4, page 110

Appendix A A-6 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 COUNTERFACTUAL REASONING A-33. Counterfactual reasoning is an analytic method that is useful for discovering the relationships between possible events and their most plausible outcomes. It essentially combines two of the contrarian techniques already discussed:  High impact/low probability analysis, which discusses what could occur and the resultant consequences.  “What if” analysis, which reframes the question, assuming that the surprise event has occurred and then looks backward to identify those key actions, that taken in a timely manner might possibly prevent it from happening in the first place. Facts A-34. Counterfactual reasoning is conducted for several purposes:  Facilitate causal analysis. Many scenarios rely upon causal events as indicators. An understanding of the most significant causal forces leads to more relevant analysis and assessments.  Overcome deterministic biases. Analysts can reduce the possibility of hindsight bias by proactively determining potential futures as if they had already happened, determining how they might have occurred, and looking for indicators.  Incorporate creativity into the analytic process. Analysts can avoid a lack of imagination or openness to other possibilities.  Ground strategic assessment. Many strategies, and analyses of them, are grounded in a series of counterfactual claims about alternate possibilities, their consequences, and the relationships between them. The Method A-35. Counterfactual reasoning is performed through four stages: zero through three. Stage Zero—Establish Event Context A-36. Stage zero begins with the determination or arrival at the focal question driving the analysis. Essentially the focal question contains or alludes to an issue’s primary driver that may have either near- or long-term application towards an intelligence problem. The analyst should have an understanding of the context for the possible event, to include the causal background. When thinking causal background, think of it within the context of the relationship between cause and effect. The overriding purpose and objective of stage zero is estimating the (typically) ten most critical causal forces influencing the topic at present. A-37. The key steps of stage zero are—  Ask, “What affects the question?”  Determine focal question to drive analysis.  Ensure the analyst understands the context for the possible event.  Think in context of the relationship between cause and effect.  Determine approximately ten most critical causal forces.  Determine causal history. What elements or drivers affect the question? Stage One—Establish Antecedent Scenario A-38. In stage one the analyst constructs the antecedent scenario or “what if” back story that sets the potential event in motion. The analyst thinks in terms of likely or required precursor events that point towards and/or generates the possible event. The purpose is to identify two to three deviations from the original ten casual forces that could combine to bring about the possible event.