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Emerging Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 A-7 A-39. The key steps of stage one are—  Ask: “How can the event occur?”  Examine causal history. Key on a small number of causal forces in the causal history and their potential deviations.  Re-engage current trends and understand what change is required for the event to occur. Determine which trends would have to decrease, continue, or increase to facilitate the event.  Consider alternative ways in which the event could occur. Determine other antecedent scenarios. Stage Two—Determine Event Compatibility A-40. In stage two, the analyst determines if there is any ripple effect of the possible event upon any remaining casual forces. This is to determine if there is any dramatic shift of those remaining casual forces. Also, those shifts potentially serve as either a primary indicator or as a signpost of change dynamic that has impact on the probability of the possible events as well as potential after-event consequences. A-41. In stage two, the analyst looks for those items or trends that are compatible with the possible event and thinks in terms of intermediate states (or that intermediate period between the time of the antecedent event and the time of the possible consequences). A-42. The key steps of stage two are—  Select intermediate states.  Evaluate the secondary effects, tertiary effects, and beyond of the possible event on the causal forces not considered.  What new events and/or trends may emerge as a result of the event occurring? What are the secondary and tertiary effects of these? Stage Three—Drawing Consequent Scenarios A-43. In stage three, the analyst transitions to the ultimate objective of the process—to draw potential or likely conclusions from the possible event. Specifically, the analyst drafts several follow-on scenarios or aftermath-related events that could potentially emerge if or once the possible events become a reality. A-44. The purpose of this stage is to explore three-to-five scenarios consistent with the antecedent scenario (and intermediate states) as well as the outcomes common to multiple scenarios. A-45. The key steps of stage three are—  Generate several scenarios derived from the possible consequences of the event occurring. It is recommended the analyst develop three possible scenarios or COAs.  Determine possible consequences of each of the scenarios generated.  Determine commonalities between the consequences for each scenario to determine possible trends. IMAGINATIVE TECHNIQUES A-46. Imaginative thinking techniques aim at developing new insight, different perspectives, and/or alternative outcomes. They aid the analyst in generating new ideas, broaden possible outcomes, and reduce the chance of unforeseen outcomes. Imaginative techniques look at the problem from different (often even multiple) perspectives and allow the analyst to better forecast and assess potential COAs. Additionally, proper application of imaginative techniques can help identify differences in perspective and different assumptions among analytic team members. A-47. There are many imaginative techniques; however, this publication discusses only the following:  Brainstorming.  Outside-In Thinking.  Red Team Analysis.  Alternative Future Analysis.  Morphological Analysis with Multiple Scenarios Generation.