ATP 2-33.4, page 112
Intelligence Analysis
Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis
2014 public edition (Archive.org)
Searchable page text (OCR / PDF)
Appendix A
A-8
ATP 2-33.4
18 August 2014
BRAINSTORMING
A-48. Analysts use the brainstorming technique in the same manner as it is used for developing situational
understanding and conclusions as discussed in chapter 5.
Facts
A-49. Brainstorming should be a very structured process to be most productive. An unconstrained, informal
discussion might produce some interesting ideas, but usually a more systematic process is the most
effective way to break down mindsets and produce new insights.
The Method
A-50. In particular, the process involves a divergent thinking phase to generate and collect new ideas and
insights, followed by a convergent phase in which ideas are grouped and organized around key concepts.
The following are some of the simple rules to follow:
Never censor an analyst’s ideas no matter how unconventional they might sound.
Find out what prompted the thought, as it might contain the seeds of an important connection
between the topic and an unstated assumption.
Take the time to brainstorm correctly. It usually takes one hour to establish the method used to
ensure the group is comfortable and able to exhaust the conventional wisdom on the topic. Only
then will the truly creative ideas begin to emerge.
Involve someone outside the group who does not share the same educational background,
culture, technical knowledge, or mindset as the core group but who is familiar with the topic.
This fosters creative ideas.
OUTSIDE-IN THINKING
A-51. Analysts find this technique most useful at the conceptualization of an analytic project, when the goal
is to identify all the critical, external factors that could influence how a particular situation will develop. It
works well for a group of analysts responsible for a range of functional and/or regional issues. When
assembling a large database that must identify a number of information categories or database fields, this
technique can aid in visualizing the entire set of categories that might be needed in a research effort. Often
analysts realize too late that some additional information categories will be needed and then must go back
and review all previous files and recode the data. With a modest amount of effort, outside-in thinking can
reduce the risk of missing important variables early in the analytic process.
Facts
A-52. Most analysts spend their time concentrating on familiar factors within their field or analytic issues;
that is, they think from the inside—namely, what they control—out to the broader world. Conversely,
thinking from the outside-in begins by considering the external changes that might, over time, profoundly
affect the analysts’ own field or issue. This technique encourages analysts to get away from their immediate
analytic tasks (the so-called inbox) and think about their issues in a wider conceptual and contextual
framework. By recasting the problem in much broader and basic terms, analysts are more likely to uncover
additional factors, an important dynamic, or a relevant alternative hypothesis.
The Method
A-53. The process begins by developing a generic description of the problem or the phenomenon under
study. Then, analysts should—
List all the key forces (social, technological, economic, environmental, and political) that could
have an impact on the topic, but over which one can exert little influence (such as globalization,
social stress, the Internet, or the global economy).
Focus next on key factors over which an individual or policymaker can exert some influence. In
the business world this might be the market size, customers, the competition, suppliers or