ATP 2-33.4, page 113

Emerging Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 A-9 partners; in the government domain it might include the policy actions or the behavior of allies or adversaries.  Assess how each of these forces could affect the analytic problem.  Determine whether these forces actually do have an impact on the particular issue based on the available evidence. RED TEAM ANALYSIS A-54. Frequently, analysts face the challenge of forecasting how a foreign leader or decisionmaking group may behave when it is clear there is a risk of falling into a “mirror-image” problem. That is, analysts can sometimes believe a foreign leader has the same motives, values, or understanding of an issue that they hold. Traditional analysis sometimes assumes that foreign leaders or groups will behave rationally and act as the analysts would if faced with the same threats or opportunities. History has shown that foreign leaders often respond differently to events because of different cultural, organizational, or personal experiences. Facts A-55. Red Team analysis tries to consciously place analysts in the same cultural, organizational, and personal setting (“putting them in their shoes”) in which the target individual or group operates. Whereas analysts normally work from the position of the blue (friendly forces), a red team of analysts attempts to work in the environment of the hostile forces. A-56. Like devil’s advocacy and Team A/Team B techniques, Red Team analysis is aimed at freeing the analyst from the prison of a well-developed mindset; in this case, the analyst’s own sense of rationality, cultural norms, and personal values. Whereas analysts usually operate as observers of a foreign threat, the Red Team technique transforms the analyst into an enemy operating within the threat’s culture and political milieu. This form of role-playing is useful when trying to replicate the mindset of authoritarian leaders, terrorist cells, or other nonwestern groups that operate under very different codes of behavior or motivations. A-57. Often this technique can introduce new or different stimuli that might not have been factored into traditional analysis, such as the target’s familial ties or the international political, economic, and military pressures felt by the individual. For example, Red Team participants might ask themselves: “What would my peers, family, or tribe expect me to do? Alternatively, a Red Team analyst might pose the question to his colleagues: “How do we perceive the external threats and opportunities?” Finally, the Red Team technique can factor into its analysis the way in which personal power and status might influence a target’s behavior. The Method A-58. Red Team analysis is not easy to conduct. It requires significant time to develop a team of qualified experts who can think like the threat. The team has to distance itself from the normal analysis and work as though living in the target’s world. Without sophisticated understanding of the culture, operational environments, and personal histories of the foreign group, analysts will not be able to behave or think like the enemy. Analysts can never truly escape their own experiences and mindsets, but this technique can at least prevent them from falling subconsciously into mirror-imaging. A-59. On issues that lend themselves to Red Team analysis, a manager needs to build a team of experts with in-depth knowledge of the operational environments, the target’s personality, and the style of thinking used. The team should be populated with people who might have experienced the culture, shared the ethnic background, or have worked in similar operational environments. It is desirable, although not absolutely necessary, to include those who understand the target’s language. Once established and separated from traditional analysis, the team members should—  Put themselves in the threat’s circumstances and react to foreign stimuli as the target would.  Develop a set of first-person questions that the threat would ask, such as: “How would I perceive incoming information; what would be my personal concerns; or to whom would I look for an opinion?”