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The Wire · 2026-07-06

The Wire - July 6, 2026

//The Wire//2300Z July 6, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CHINA AND NORTH KOREA CONDUCT MISSILE TESTS IN PACIFIC. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE CONDUCT MAJOR TARGETING EFFORTS. INDONESIAN MILITARY RECOVERS REMAINS OF AMERICAN PILOT KILLED IN AMBUSH OVER THE WEEKEND.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Far East: Multiple missile tests were reported over the weekend, with both North Korea and China conducting tests of long-range munitions. North Korea tested a total of 12x cruise missiles from the *KANG KON*, the Choe Hyon-class Destroyer which is the newest addition to the Korean People's Navy. In China, a submarine-launched ballistic missile test was carried out at an undisclosed location in the Pacific, marking the first test of a SLBM by China in several years. Europe: The war in Ukraine escalated over the weekend as Russia renewed strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. On Saturday, Ukrainian forces conducted more long-range drone attacks on Russian oil depots, most notably the Ust-Luga oil terminal in St. Petersburg. Separately, a different series of drone attacks struck various refineries in the Omsk region, deep within Russia. In response, Russia has conducted several strikes throughout Kiev, including the Vishnyovoye fuel depot on the southwestern outskirts of Kiev, which resulted in an extremely large fire. NASA's space-based fire detection sensors noted one very large fire at this fuel depot, along with a few smaller fires throughout the city that are anomalies from normal heat signatures in the region. In addition to the fuel depot, an ammo dump was co-located with this facility, which was used to store American tank rounds which contained depleted uranium penetrators, along with components for the production of cluster munitions which also contained depleted uranium. Analyst Comment: Depleted uranium tank rounds are about 40% less radioactive than raw uranium that is mined out of the ground, so the radiological nature of this ammunition is not normally a concern. However, this risk changes substantially if it's on fire as the smoke produced by burning uranium does indeed present a radiological hazard, thus the evacuations. This ammunition storage area was located in a densely populated residential area, with the resulting fires prompting the evacuation of roughly 600x residents. Indonesia: Over the weekend, Indonesian troops conducted an operation to recover the remains of an American civilian pilot who was killed by armed rebels in a remote town high in the mountains southeast of Wamena on the island of West Papua. Nicholas F. Goselin was a bush pilot flying supplies and materiel into Balinggama Airstrip when he was ambushed last Thursday. The attack was carried out by the West Papua Liberation Army (TPNPB), a separatist movement that has been seeking independence from Indonesia for a few decades. The rebels allowed Goselin to land, before murdering him on the airstrip and burning his aircraft. At the time of the ambush, a total of 7x passengers (local Indonesian villagers) were allegedly onboard the aircraft and their status is unknown. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: According to the armed rebels in Indonesia, the reason for the murder is due to Goselin allegedly shuttling Indonesian special forces into the region to fight the rebels. An American bush pilot landing at sketchy airstrips, alone, in the middle of a war-torn region high in the mountains is not a particularly safe career choice, and it's not clear as to what prompted the rebels to conduct this attack. The rebel group has claimed that they warned the aircraft not to land, but the airline that Goselin was flying for (PT AMA) made no mention of acknowledging any no-fly zones declared by armed groups. In any case, due to the death of an American, the Indonesian military is likely to crack down hard on this region over the next few weeks, in order to prevent rebel groups from capitalizing on their power-projection operations. Back in April, the United States signed a non-binding "defensive cooperation partnership" with Indonesia as Washington sought to increase relations by way of undermining Chinese expansion in the region. On April 13th of this year, one day before the defense pact was signed, Indonesian media reported that their nation was discussing (or had already agreed to) allowing American military access to their airspace. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
Intel Update · 2026-03-22

Intel Update - March 21 - Counting Chickens

…Overall, the main focus has been on the expansion of the war in the Middle East due to entering a new phase of the war. The United States keeps bombing targets in Iran and the Iranians…
Intel Update · 2026-07-25

Intel Update - July 25 - PetroWar

…In terms of the Middle East, that's a drop in the bucket. But in terms of all the other oil supplies around the world, it's not insignificant. Just for context, the United States has…
Intel Update · 2026-05-09

Intel Update - May 9 - Intended Consequences

…So, the biggest change is the departure of the Ford Carrier Strike Group from the Middle East this week. The Ford is going home to conclude her very, very long deployment to the region, and I…
Intel Update

Intel Update - July 11 - Shadow War Goes Hot

…years now have flared back up with several very serious developments taking place in Europe and the Middle East this week. In Africa, the Russians are involved in intense fighting against the FLA militants in Mali…
Intel Update · 2026-04-25

Intel Update - April 25 - Surging Again

…Major geopolitical events that are shaping the future of humanity are underway right now with a land war in Europe being fought alongside a regional war in the Middle East, which has choked off a large…
Intel Update · 2026-03-15

Intel Update - March 14 - Schrödinger's War

…So this conflict is most certainly expanding beyond the borders of Iran at least when it comes to militias being activated around the Middle East. So far most of these attacks and targeting efforts are mostly…
Intel Update · 2026-03-08

Intel Update - March 7 - Shock and Awe REUPLOAD

…We actually conducted a drone strike in Ecuador the other day, but that's been deprioritized by events in the Middle East. There are also two American pilots that are rotting in a West African prison…
Intel Update · 2026-04-19

Intel Update - April 18 - It's Not Over Yet

…Maybe the American leadership doesn't really care about the Middle East in terms of whether or not we get the oil. They just don't want China to have it. Kind of a scorched earth…
The Wire · 2026-06-15

The Wire - June 15, 2026

…sites being destroyed, a whole lot of destruction in Iran itself, and the oil infrastructure in the Middle East being heavily degraded. This is why it's hard to believe that the U.S. (or Israel…
The Wire · 2026-06-15

The Wire - June 15, 2026

…sites being destroyed, a whole lot of destruction in Iran itself, and the oil infrastructure in the Middle East being heavily degraded. This is why it's hard to believe that the U.S. (or Israel…
Intel Update · 2026-04-11

Intel Update - April 11 - Dire Strait

…shipping carrying on as usual, back to the US being able to have military bases in the Middle East, and back to the way things have been for decades. However, even though this is clearly a…
Intel Update · 2026-05-23

Intel Update - May 23 - Dwindling Options

…So, speaking of tough situations, the crisis in the Middle East continues to make life interesting for most of the planet as the energy crisis continues to grow by the day. Rumors have been flying out…
Intel Update · 2026-02-21

Intel Update - Feb. 21 - Midnight Sun

…So, again, all rumor, but it's a rumor that is basically the baseline assumption for American military policy in the Middle East these days. As in, this isn't just what people are screeching about…
Intel Update

Intel Update - June 20 - The Day After

…think it's related to what's going on right now on the diplomatic front in the Middle East and it might help us get an understanding of the seriousness of what's going on behind…
Intel Update · 2026-03-29

Intel Update - March 28 - Casino of War

…next, so they may also be seeking to bring in Turkey into this little excursion in the Middle East. Still too soon to tell, though, so we'll have to get back to that once we…
Intel Update

Intel Update - July 4 - Nil Desperandum

…The conflict in the Middle East has remained fairly tepid as the Ayatollah's formal state funeral has begun this week. So, all sides have really kept things to a minimum, as demonstrated by the rather…
Intel Update · 2025-04-19

Intel Update - April 19 - Kinetic Activities

…So, in the Middle East, things are still rather kinetic depending on where you're at. In Syria, there is a possible drawdown going on of American forces who are shutting down a few uh smaller…
Intel Update

Intel Update - June 6 - Mowing the Lawn

…Moving to the Middle East this week. My oh my, it has been rather busy. Bottom line, everyone has been shooting at each other, but it's not as severe as before. Almost immediately after I…
Intel Update · 2025-06-21

Intel Update - June 21 - Another Desert War?

…and I think that we might be approaching the 11th hour with regards to conflict in the Middle East. But first, starting off with a general overview of what's going on around the world this…