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The Wire · 2026-03-18
//The Wire//1800Z March 18, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDS THE JONES ACT AS PETROLEUM INDUSTRY FEELS EFFECTS OF WAR IN IRAN. CONFLICT IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES AS ISRAELI FORCES INCREASE TARGETING EFFORTS IN LEBANON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Persian Gulf: The war continues as before, with multiple attacks on American military bases occurring overnight. The American Embassy in Baghdad has been persistently targeted over the past few days, with one drone strike being reported last night, which resulted in unknown damage. Other coalition positions were struck as well, with Australia reporting successful Iranian targeting efforts at Al Minhad Airbase in the UAE. No casualties were reported by the Australians regarding this attack. Within Iran, Israel/American forces struck the South Pars Natural Gas Facility, one of the largest LNG facilities in the world.
Analyst Comment: Following this strike, several GCC states have condemned the action, as destroying infrastructure like this is a major escalation that indicates the nature of the war is more unrestricted, but also because the gas fields serviced by this facility are decently close to the Qatari's own gas fields.
Lebanon: The war has intensified over the past few days as Hezbollah and Israeli forces have continued fighting along the main axis of advance in the east. Throughout Lebanon (to include downtown Beirut) the Israeli bombing campaign continues, with Hezbollah forces remaining effective in targeting Tel Aviv with guided rockets and cruise missiles.
-HomeFront-
New Mexico: Yesterday afternoon a shooting was reported at Holloman Air Force Base, which resulted in one individual being killed and one other wounded at the base shopette. No other details have been provided on this shooting, and the investigation continues.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Washington, several items of note have been ongoing in the political realm, while attention has been focused on Iran. As one might expect, kicking off a war in the Middle East was expected to (and did) have secondary and tertiary effects. One of the immediate effects of this war has been found in the Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) industry, which has experienced wildly fluctuating markets since the war began. This morning the average national gas price rose to $3.84 per gallon, which prompted the White House to implement their previously discussed tactic of suspending the Jones Act as an emergency means to bring prices down in the short term.
For context, the Jones Act was implemented shortly after WW1 as a national security measure, to mandate that all goods that transit between American ports, must be transported using American ships with American crews. The general idea being that in the event of war, the maritime trade industry would need to remain effective...it wouldn't be super great for war to break out, and all of the merchant ships that keep the American economy afloat, were to sail back home. The American economy could be crippled without a shot being fired, solely by private companies in the US being allowed to use cheap foreign labor that is not loyal to the United States. In 1920 when the law was passed, the thought process was that companies might take advantage of the freedoms that America provides, to the legitimate detriment of national security. As a result, the Jones Act was a law intended to (somewhat begrudgingly) meddle in the free market, with the purpose of not allowing domestic American companies to rely on logistical infrastructure that isn't American and thus would be a vulnerability in war.
As of this morning President Trump suspended this law in it's entirety for the next 60 days, with the White House's logic being that removing regulations will make shipping costs go down, as the free market of ships could carry cargo, and thus save some costs somewhere down the line, which could be passed on to consumers. The effectiveness of this tactic will be proven in due time; most maritime agencies don't think it will do much, as it's unlikely for costs to be passed on to consumers for one, and secondly this is really just a last-ditch measure to throw any potential theoretical solution out, so as to find a way to drop gas prices by even just a few cents, which the White House is desperate to do at this point. Either way, this Jones Act waiver is in place for the next 60 days. Going out on a limb just a bit, 60 day waivers are not usually issued for wars that are supposed to be over within a "few weeks", so this somewhat boilerplate policy decision may be an inadvertent indicator for how long this war is planned to last.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
The Wire · 2026-04-17
//The Wire//2300Z April 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIANS CONDITIONALLY OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SURGE OF SHIPS ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE PERSIAN GULF. CRIME WAVE STRIKES WASHINGTON DC. TERROR ATTACK SCARE STRIKES LONDON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant diplomatic events have transpired throughout the day. In Lebanon, the Israelis have allegedly agreed to a ceasefire (and possibly a halt to the forward movement of their ground invasion). This is contingent on events in Iran, which allegedly announced the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire is in effect. This re-opening is conditional, with the terms being no military vessels will be allowed, ships must coordinate with the Iranians, use the new Larak Island route instead of the traditional corridor, and ship's cargo must not be "linked to belligerent states".
Analyst Comment: If these are truthfully the terms that will be enforced, this is no change to the preexisting situation, as all of these terms have already been in place. Statements by President Trump differ somewhat from what the Iranians have stated publicly, with the United States announcing that the Strait is fully open, free and clear....only on the Iranian side. Per the White House and CENTCOM, the American blockade will continue.
United Kingdom: This morning a significant police presence was observed in Kensington Gardens in conjunction with an ongoing investigation of a security incident. Overnight, a video was posted online by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) in which this group claimed to have carried out a drone attack on the Israeli embassy. In the video, the assailants claimed to have infiltrated the park, and launched drones carrying radioactive material toward the embassy. Police state that some "discarded items" were recovered from the park, but authorities have not disclosed if anything harmful was found.
Analyst Comment: Right now this looks to be a hoax based on statements made by authorities, who have stated that no attack was actually conducted. A cheap drone and a Tyvek suit is a very low-cost way to tie up a lot of resources and waste a lot of time, so these types of scares and incidents are extremely common during periods of heightened concern for terrorism. This group was also completely unheard of until after the war in Iran began, and it's allegedly the same group responsible for the ambulance arson attack in Golder's Green a few weeks ago.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Due to an increase of crime throughout the city, Mayor Bowser has recommenced juvenile curfew procedures within certain districts of the city. Last night a shooting was reported in a traditionally high-crime area near the Navy Yard, which resulted in a brief manhunt for the suspect (who remains at large).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though the Iranians have allegedly opened up their side of the Strait of Hormuz more than it has over the past few weeks, the situation in the Middle East remains complicated. This afternoon, a substantial number of vessels were observed attempting to make a break for it while they still can, with several cargo ships attempting to transit the Strait. However, several of these ships were turned around by the Iranians, so it will probably take overnight before we can see how this all works out.
As things stand right now, the rhetoric of all parties is not exactly matching the ground-truth of what is going on in the Strait, so we have to make an educated guess as to what is happening with regards to global trade. Right now, it looks like the US traded a ceasefire in Lebanon for opening the Strait for third-party nations to escape the Persian Gulf. Ships that are stuck in the Gulf can't make money elsewhere, and this agreement might be a more temporary "hostage release" situation to get these ships out of the region. The US will still enforce a blockade to Iranian ports, and the Iranians will prevent the US from sending warships into the Gulf. The minefield in the main shipping channel is still in place, and everything else remains the same as before.
However, keeping a wider perspective at a very tense time might also be beneficial. It is also plausible that the American blockade is not entirely a serious endeavor, but rather an indication that we're not out of the woods just yet. Right now, via the implementation of the blockade, the US Navy is continuing to stage a lot of ships much closer to Iran than they have been observed so far during this war. Overnight, the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* was observed transiting the Singapore Strait, heading west toward Iran. This is an Expeditionary Sea Base, a relatively newer class of ships who's sole purpose is to serve as a seaborne platform for Special Operations. Over the past two months, very interesting resources and platforms have been staging at Diego Garcia as well, with a notable increase in aircraft being staged at this base since the ceasefire went into effect.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
The Wire · 2026-02-16
//The Wire//2300Z February 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONCERNS ARE GROWING FOR TWO CAPTURED AMERICAN PILOTS DETAINED IN WEST AFRICA. UNITED STATES SEIZES OIL TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Indian Ocean: Over the weekend the United States seized the M/T *VERONICA III*, one of the tankers which fled Venezuela in the wake of the fall of the Maduro government. The vessel was boarded and seized due to carrying oil in violation of American sanctions.
West Africa: Concerns are growing concerning the safety of Two American pilots who were illegally detained by authorities in Guinea almost 6 weeks ago. On December 29th, Brad Schlenker and Fabio Espinal Nunez were piloting a private charter flight when they diverted to Guinea to refuel. They were given permission to land, and upon taxiing to the terminal, were greeted by armed soldiers. Both pilots have been detained since the incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As of right now, the issue of the pilots in Guinea is still in the realm of diplomacy, as the families of the captives have been working with the Embassy to secure the pilots' release. Since this line of effort has not yielded any progress, the families have gone to the media with the hope that a media blitz will pressure the White House to speed along their release.
All of this can probably be handled with a phone call, but just in case a more active response is called for, an understanding of the terrain might be helpful.
So far, many details remain unknown as the initial circumstances of the detention are hard to verify. Flying for a regional charter airline in Africa is one of the most dangerous jobs a pilot can take, simply due to the corruption that is rampant throughout the continent. As such, it was an odd choice to choose to land in this country in particular, which has led many to assess that there is more to the story than meets the eye. The status of the original charter itself is also not known; some reports state that this flight was a ferry flight moving an aircraft that was recently sold (i.e. no passengers on board), whereas other reports state that they were flying a Brazilian family to Dubai.
In any case, taking the story at face-value, the pilots diverted to Guinea for fuel and upon landing probably did not have enough cash on hand for the required bribes. Verbal permission to land is not good enough in Africa, and every stage along the way involves greasing palms, which always demand more. In this case, these pilots are currently serving as a bargaining chip, having chosen to land in Guinea at the worst possible time...during a state of military coup. General Mamadi Doumbouya is currently running the country after "winning" the election one day before these pilots landed. Doumbouya was the leader of the 2021 coup that overthrew the previous government, and over the past few years, the beleaguered nation has been host to the standard West African experience of poverty and violence while under military rule.
Now that he's made his warlord status official, his government is probably looking to increase his standing. Nothing pads the ego of an African warlord quite like snatching a couple of Americans so as to get the attention of the United States (the mere dialog with the US alone will increase the legitimacy of his government).
However, Doumbouya might find that his little stunt gets the wrong kind of attention from the United States if the pilots are not released immediately. Whatever the pilots did (if anything) to get detained is not a good enough excuse to avoid American involvement; the United States has proven over the past year that the US military will bomb a country back to the stone age for nothing more than a Klondike bar, so Doumbouya would be wise to correct this issue immediately. Local media reports (such that they are) indicate that the courts have actually declined to press charges against the pilots as they have done nothing wrong, but the military council running the administration of the country has refused to release them.
On the ground, the situation is not great. Schlenker and Nunez have been allowed access to a phone semi-regularly, and have been making contact with family after their detention. State Department officials have also reportedly visited the prisoners in person, confirming that they are still alive. The exact facility that the pilots are being held in is not known, however they have stated that they are located in Conakry, so they are probably being held somewhere inside Conakry Central Prison (also known as Maison Centrale in French), which is the only known detention facility in the area. It is possible the pilots are being held elsewhere, however historically most leaders of African nations tend to keep a close eye on their political prisoners, and Guinea's history is no different, with the main prison being located a short distance from the Presidential Residences. This is important as if this is where the pilots are being held, they probably will not survive much longer.
This facility is nestled in the heart of heavily urbanized terrain at the southwestern end of the peninsula which contains Guinea's capital city of Conakry. As far as prisons go, this facility is a standard example of the typical African prison, and conditions inside the compound are horrific at best and non-survivable at worst due to extremely harsh living conditions brought on by overcrowding, as well as the brutality of the guards who frequently torture prisoners.
The terrain surrounding the compound is dense urban city, with little open ground. The target compound itself is encircled by slums to the North and East, and protected by a mud-brick wall approximately 8 feet tall, and 1-2 feet thick. Inside the perimeter sits a scattered array of one-story buildings, most of which are of cinderblock construction. Otherwise, defenses throughout the peninsula are sparse, with most weapons systems being centered around the standard Technical with a mounted crew-served weapon. It is likely that no MANPADs or other more sophisticated air defenses are located in the area. Most military forces are scattered sporadically, with the main bulk of somewhat-organized forces being concentrated at the Airport 7 miles to the northeast.
All in all, if Doumbouya wants to take his chances, he's certainly welcome to do so, however it would be wise for him to seek a diplomatic solution immediately.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
The Wire · 2026-02-23
//The Wire//1900Z February 23, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SECRET SERVICE NEUTRALIZES GUNMAN AT MAR-A-LAGO. BUILDUP CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS MASS EVACUATIONS BEGIN. CONFLICT REMAINS INTENSE IN MEXICO.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Mexico: Following yesterday's intense fighting in Jalisco, most airlines have canceled flights out of Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta. The main hospital in Guadalajara was evacuated for a few hours, after CJNG forces threatened to attack the facility due to rumors that wounded Federal forces were being treated there. The National Guard base in San Juan de Los Lagos was attacked with explosives (possibly RPGs), which resulted in several casualties.
Far to the north, schools throughout Baja and Tijuana have been cancelled for all levels of education until further notice, and various Cartel-affiliated social media pages have declared a 10:00pm curfew for civilians, announcing that anyone caught outside after this hour will be shot.
Concerning casualties sustained so far, Government forces report a total of 25x KIA as of this morning, most of which occurred as a result of the attack on the National Guard base. For CJNG, casualties are not known, as they usually withdraw with their wounded/dead without disclosing casualty figures until much later (if at all).
Analyst Comment: Officially, the position of the Federal government is that absolutely nothing is happening whatsoever. This morning, President Sheinbaum stated several times that no blockades were in place, no engagements took place at all this morning, and everything is perfectly calm. This is mostly a lie, as multiple arson attacks have been reported this morning, but it's the story that the federales are sticking to. It is true that the knee-jerk response yesterday was an intense flash-in-the-pan, however much more substantial resources are staging throughout the nation, as many different cartels get ready for a protracted fight, if that is the chosen course of action.
At lower levels of government, officials are not taking any chances. Authorities being concerned enough to cancel classes and close businesses in Baja is interesting as most people thought that this state was entirely controlled by the Sinaloa Cartel...not CJNG. This also means that conflict is likely to spread throughout the country, not just Jalisco where the violence first began. Cross border-conflict has not yet been observed in American border towns just yet, however with the speed at which hostilities have developed, a hot, shooting war can break out in any location at any time.
-HomeFront-
Florida: Over the weekend, a suspected assassination attempt was reported at Mar-a-Lago, after an assailant armed with a shotgun and incendiary materials breached the inner perimeter of the compound. Sunday morning, the US Secret Service posted a press statement confirming that one suspect had been killed at Mar-a-Lago after breaching a perimeter fence.
Analyst Comment: Due to the sensitivity of the site, zero details have been provided on where the suspect breached the fence, or where the individual was engaged within the compound. No information has been posted regarding the shooter's identity or motive for the attack.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, wartime preparations continue as before. Meanwhile on the diplomatic front, negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to resume in Geneva on Thursday. Over the weekend, the Iranian diplomatic delegation was presented with a letter from the United States, outlining the proposals for limits on the Iranian missile program. As the Iranians have stated from the very start that their missile program itself is not up for discussion in any way, they returned the letter, reportedly unopened. At the time, most surmised that this was the last chance the Iranians had in avoiding war, and considering that negotiations are back on for Thursday, it's quite possible that future diplomatic endeavors are just efforts to stall for time. The USS *FORD* CSG arrived in the eastern Mediterranean Sea this morning, and if her mission is to provide air defense for the Israeli's she should be in position to do so by this afternoon.
Similarly, logistical aircraft have continued pouring into the region. Embassy evacuations continue as well, with American diplomatic stations in Lebanon being evacuated of non-essential personnel overnight. Similar drawdowns have been observed at Al Udeid Airbase, though Sentinel satellite imagery from yesterday indicates there are still many aircraft at this installation. This will very likely change by the next time a satellite pass is conducted, and more aircraft maneuver throughout the region without transmitting their position to the ADS-B feeds that the Pentagon knows everyone is watching. Some of the aircraft that were supposed to be at Al Udeid, were observed on the ground in a completely different location this morning, so the shell game is taking place. There are already enough resources in theater to carry out a protracted air campaign, and every hour more resources are being flown into the region.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
The Wire · 2025-06-20
//The Wire//2300Z June 20, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC AVIATION AND NAVAL FORCES CONTINUE STAGING IN MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Targeting efforts by Iranian forces continue with multiple missile strikes being reported in Haifa overnight, targeting the Negev Advanced Technologies Park. Israeli targeting continues in similar fashion in Tehran. The United Kingdom has evacuated their Embassy in Tehran, and the United States continues to maneuver substantial resources into the Middle East. Maersk has announced that they are suspending all operations in the port city of Haifa while the war remains kinetic.
AC: This afternoon a 5.4M earthquake was detected originating in the vicinity of Tehran. Considering that tensions are extremely high throughout the region, this has led many to theorize that some sort of weapons test was carried out (as nuclear tests are normally detected by seismic sensors). However, at the moment, nothing points to this outcome. The USGS plots the earthquake at an estimated depth of 10km, which is far deeper than a nuclear test would be. Additionally, the seismic signature of a man-made explosive device can easily be discerned from natural phenomenon, so if it was a man-made blast every seismologist in the world will be able to verify it.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the war continues in the Middle East, a bit of background knowledge may be helpful in understanding the grand strategy of the military tactics at hand. Both Israel and Iran are unique nations in that geography separates them, yet neither have any real expeditionary capability. In short, if a nation is at war with another...but doesn't share a land border or have a military with an amphibious capability... the most that nation can do is more or less to lob missiles at their adversary. So far, both nations have relied upon this long-distance targeting means as their primary way of waging war: Iran launches missiles, and the Israelis drop bombs.
However, Israeli military doctrine is heavily reliant upon deception and subterfuge in order to project influence even within the nations they are at war with. Right now, it is becoming more clear that Israeli Special Forces are able to operate on the ground within Iran, in many cases with impunity. Israel was able to create a "drone base" in the desert from which their initial attacks were launched within Iran itself (echoing Ukraine's sneak attack in Russia). Similarly, Iranian forces have discovered several instances of equipment emplaced on the ground very close to sensitive sites; overnight the Iranians discovered a remotely-controlled Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) launcher emplaced outside Tehran, in addition to a small truck that was laden with drones (again, exactly as was used by Ukraine recently). Several propaganda videos of strikes in Iran have raised questions as to exactly how the footage was taken. For example, Israeli forces released the footage of the strikes on the Arak Heavy Water facility...footage which appears to have been filmed from an elevated position on the ground...not from a drone as one might expect.
This will be important to consider as American involvement appears be looming. In less than two months, large-scale sneak-attacks via drones and asymmetric warfare tactics have become normalized in two major conflicts. This is not a threat that is years away; this threat has gone from the drawing board to operationally proven (twice) in just a few weeks.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
The Wire · 2026-07-09
//The Wire//2300Z July 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS CEASEFIRE REMAINS DEFUNCT FOR NOW. MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN HORMUZ SLOWS TO A CRAWL DUE TO TARGETING.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with many targeting efforts being undertaken by the United States and Iran. Within Iran, the U.S. continued to strike coastal sites and fastboat ports, in addition to striking more substantial infrastructure targets deep within Iran. These strikes continued throughout the day, with explosions being reported around the country this afternoon.
On the Iranian side, many strikes were carried out on the usual sites throughout the region. In Kuwait, Ali Al Salem Airbase and Camp Arifjan were targeted, with the Iranians claiming to hit a Patriot battery at one of these sites. In Qatar, a radar installation was targeted, and a fuel depot was targeted in Bahrain. In Jordan, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was targeted again, with the American Embassy in Amman urging all Americans to shelter in place during the strikes. Drone/missile strikes were also reported targeting U.S. positions in Erbil, Iraq, the success of which is currently unknown.
-HomeFront-
New York: The Department of Buildings has reported that the former Pfizer building has largely been stabilized, after severe buckling and a partial collapse of the upper floors was observed a few days ago. Various reinforcement operations continue to be undertaken to further stabilize the structure, and a third-party construction firm has been brought in to conduct additional repairs.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Despite many airframes being transferred back to the United States from the Middle East, American targeting within Iran has continued throughout the day. The heavy reliance on Tomahawk munitions (as observed on the ground by Iranians) also adds weight to the theory of the US having to rely on standoff munitions due to the logistical movements resulting in fewer aircraft being available for bombing runs.
Also, last night's strikes were also possibly more significant than meets the eye. Locals on the ground reported the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge being struck overnight, which was interesting due to it's location being in the far northeastern corner of Iran. This bridge is part of the newly unveiled China-Iran railway network, which is a series of rail lines linking Iran to western China. These lines also meander through the mountains to eventually connect to Russia via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Taking out this bridge was not only interesting because it is one of the farthest-north targets struck during the entire war, but it's also a very public message to China, who has been long-suspected of shipping the Iranians materiel and supplies to carry on the fight.
In the Strait of Hormuz, civilian merchant traffic continued to transit the waterway, but since last night the traffic has slowed to a halt again with very few crossings throughout the day. As a reminder, it takes up to two months for a tanker to make it's way to the US from the Middle East. Consequently, if the Iranians shut down the Strait again due to this targeting (or if companies simply decide that the risk isn't worth it), the world will only have the benefit of a handful of tankers which have been able to make the crossing over the past couple of weeks. This does not even remotely come close to alleviating the problems that prompted the MOU being signed...President Trump himself said that (at the time) the US only had about 4 weeks worth of Strategic Reserve left before shortages began. As the fighting has resumed to some degree, the status of the global energy crisis remains a very real concern, and the clock starts ticking down as the flow of petroleum slows down once again.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
Intel Update · 2026-03-15
Hello again everyone and welcome back to the underground. This is the Intel update for March 8th through the 14th, 2026. This week spring is in the air and terrorism season is in full bloom both at home and overseas, so let's get right to it. Around the world things are heating up with the war in the Middle East continuing as before. We are now officially 2 weeks into this conflict and the situation has only escalated since the start of this war, but we'll of course get to that in just a moment. Otherwise, the situation in most of the Western world remains tenuous at best. Multiple terror attacks have occurred within the American homeland this week and overseas American diplomatic posts have been attacked such as the small arms attack that took place at the American consulate in Toronto and also the IED attack that occurred at the American Embassy in Oslo. Very little information has been released on either attack. However, three brothers of Iraqi origin have been arrested in conjunction with the attack in Norway. No arrests have been made regarding the Canadian attack and none of the suspects involved in either event have been identified. Taking a look at the global strategic overview this week, there has been a lot of movement regarding American forces. Last night the Pentagon announced that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit out of Japan has embarked on a deployment to CENTCOM aboard the USS Tripoli. Right now she is steaming hard for CENTCOM having departed Japan some days before the announcement of her deployment became noticed by the media. Just to cut right to the chase, this has led many people to of course surmise that the United States intends to land Marines in Iran to kick off a land invasion of the country somehow. Now that line of thinking is fraught with many challenges mostly because this is not that big of a deployment. But right now at the strategic level, this could really just be preparation for something other than putting Marines on the ground such as escorting merchant vessels through the strait. This has been put forward as an idea before such as during the Houthi crisis when Houthi targeting of commercial shipping was at its height. And even more generally, there's usually an ARG somewhere in CENTCOM at any given point, so this could be really anything at this point, but this does not appear to be a standard deployment at least at the moment. As always, the White House is not really telling us anything about whatever strategy is driving this war, so we sometimes have to make pretty wild guesses at this point. Otherwise, the two aircraft carriers in CENTCOM remain as before. The Lincoln is hanging out off the coast of Oman just out of Iranian missile range and the Ford remains in the Red Sea having not transited the Bab el Mandeb strait just yet. Within the American homeland this week, multiple terror attacks have been conducted all of which appear to be lone wolf style attacks except for one incident. First up we had the IED attack at the Jake Lang protest in New York. We had the vehicle ramming attack at a synagogue in Michigan. We had the mass shooting attempt at ODU. And we also had a vehicle ramming attack at the White House which may or may not have been a terrorist attack. It's not quite clear at the moment, but I have it on the slide anyway just so we don't forget about it. Of these incidents, the one that is most likely to not be a lone wolf attack is the IED attack at the Jake Lang protest in New York. By definition, this is not a lone wolf incident since technically two terrorists participated in the attack. Pushing the classic Jake Lang antics aside, what caught my eye with this incident was the use of a decently uncommon homemade explosive or HME compound that was used by the terrorists. The use of triacetone triperoxide or TATP is not exactly a rare type of homemade explosive material. However, it is uncommon enough to indicate that this cell might have some level of experience. Usually when we hear of IED attacks at some sort of political event, we normally see things like improvised fireworks or very very crude pipe bombs or other devices that while technically are classified as IEDs, are usually very low yield. In this case, the use of TATP indicates that somebody had done some research. However, based on the documents provided by the DOJ, there are also indicators that whomever constructed the devices also made some mistakes in their construction and I'll just leave it at that. Suffice it to say that this attack was significant not because of the target, but due to the construction of the devices themselves and the fact that this protest was only announced on short notice, so these IEDs were almost certainly beforehand. Personally, even though this is pure speculation, I think these IEDs were intended for a different target and once Jake Lang showed up in New York, they decided to spend their explosives on that attack, which again is speculation, but it makes sense because the amount of time that elapsed between Jake Lang showing up and the fact that these IEDs take some time to construct. But again, this is one of those incidents where there's plenty of incentive to lie all around. New York City officials have the incentive to conceal the nature of terrorism within their city. The federal agents have the same incentive. And because Jake Lang is involved, you've got political stuff being involved with all of this, so this is really hard to kind of really get to the bottom of what actually went on here, but I'm still digging into it. Hopefully some more documents will come to light so we can figure out how many other people might have been involved in this. Regarding the other attacks, there really isn't much information to go on at the moment and the information spin is in full effect, so getting to the truth may also take some time. In Michigan, the details of Thursday's vehicle ramming attack at the synagogue remains hard to verify because the remains of the suspect were apparently consumed in the fire that broke out during the incident. I'm not sure how the suspect was identified so quickly. Maybe it was the vehicle plates. I'm not really sure. But because most of the evidence was destroyed, there's not much to go on at the moment. I don't even have a super confirmed photo of the guy just yet because I'm not really sure that the photos that have been circulating are actually the suspect. The attempted mass shooting at Old Dominion University in Virginia was a little bit more clear as the suspect had actually previously been convicted of terrorism beforehand, so his paper trail is a bit longer. And so far that case looks like the typical lone gunman terrorist who had been plotting attack plans for a long time. Much more research on this is needed. However, because I have been reading through the prior court documents on this case and his attorneys previously argued regarding his prior terrorism charge that the FBI actually entrapped him and that he did not want to actually commit that first attack that caused him to be arrested the first time. Which I'm sure all defense attorneys want to say in cases like this, but it's still an interesting note that that needs a little bit more examination. But in any case, that defense did not work because he was tried, convicted, and sentenced, sent to prison, and he was also let out of prison early, which appears to be a rather unwise decision because he then went on to conduct the terrorist attack at Old Dominion University. So that's it for the homeland this week. A lot of loose ends to be sure and not a whole lot of good news, but it is getting to be peak terrorism season, so we have to take that into account as the days get even busier over the next few weeks. In the Middle East, the Gulf War rages on with the conflict steadily escalating over the past week. And I want to state right up front that the flow of information is rather thin at this point, so we have to assess the overall situation with not that much data. And when we make assessments on very little data, the margin of error increases. So for those who ask, you know, how goes the war, the truth is that I don't really know for sure. What we can say is that the United States is continually bombing Iran. The Iranians are also continually launching missiles and drones at most American military bases in the Middle East and the Israelis have also been getting hit extremely hard since the war began even though there is very little evidence to know for certain how much damage has been done. As a reminder, American satellite imagery throughout the region has been delayed by two full weeks, which in my opinion is solely being done to prevent the American people from finding out how bad American bases and positions have been hit. European companies like Airbus are still producing products and the Iranians themselves fed intelligence and targeting data from the Chinese and probably the Russians, too. So they don't need Planet Labs imagery to know where to strike. You also cannot use satellite imagery to find out which floor of a hotel in Bahrain is housing American contractors, nor can you look at a satellite image to find out which gate will be used by an American evacuation flight out of Dubai. But the Iranians seem to know this information nonetheless and I highly doubt it came from their own trash intelligence services. And from what we can tell so far, this targeting has so far been quite effective, at least effective enough as unfortunate as it is to note. We have to tell the truth here and the Iranians have been putting up the exact insurgent style fight at the nation-state level that we have been expecting since the start of the war. From the perspective of the Iranians, this war is actually going more or less how they probably would have expected it to go. Pretty much every single American military base in the entire region has been hit at least once with several installations being hit pretty hard. Quite a few structures at the former headquarters for Fifth Fleet in Bahrain have been mostly destroyed and Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar has been targeted successfully several times over the past few days. Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait has also been hit pretty heavily since last briefing and the American positions in the Green Zone in Baghdad have taken a beating over the past couple of days as well as local Iranian militias or pro-Iran militias start to take the fight to the American positions in their country as well. So this conflict is most certainly expanding beyond the borders of Iran at least when it comes to militias being activated around the Middle East. So far most of these attacks and targeting efforts are mostly aspirational, but they are starting to launch drones including some of the more loitering munition style drones at American positions in Iraq. So that is the very general wave top situation as it stands right now. And as the war drags on 2 weeks into this conflict, it's a good time to reassess what the strategic vision and future targets might be. Remember, this is a strategic fight, so the longer that the United States is in this game, the longer that we're fighting this war, the less we have to gain and the more we have to lose. Similarly, the Iranians are exactly on the opposite side of the spectrum. The longer this fight goes on, the more they have to gain and the less they have to lose. The longer that they can threaten the Strait of Hormuz increases their power with China and with Russia and with other international trade partners. And so far, the Iranians are looking a lot more strategically important than they used to be before this conflict. So, on the military front, let's start with what is likely to get blown up next. As of last night, President Trump stated that Kharg Island has been struck with one of the largest air strikes in the history of the Middle East, his words not mine, which is a drastic overstatement because hardly anything was hit at all. Beyond hitting a few buildings and structures, Kharg Island is mostly still intact and nothing is on fire as of this morning. We are, of course, waiting on more high-resolution satellite imagery of the island to see exactly which coordinates were hit and which buildings were struck. But, as of right now, it doesn't look like it was too substantial even using CENTCOM's own imagery and video evidence of the strikes. Other than Kharg Island, which is more of a strategic target, another future target could be Qeshm Island and maybe a few of the outposts on smaller islands in the Strait of Hormuz. But, honestly, most of the threats to the strait are not from coastal defense batteries or anything like that. The drones targeting shipping in the strait are probably being launched a long way from the coast, from any number of a thousand different launch sites. These small boat attacks, which are threatening the boats that are hanging out just off the coast of Kuwait, those are indeed coming from the coastline, and I'm working on isolating a few of the locations where they are being launched from. But, there are a few naval bases and few installations up there which are more asymmetric, more IRGC-N as opposed to the main surface fleet IRIN. If we recall, a lot of the IRGC-N, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, that's the more special forces navy if you want to think it like think of it like that. These smaller, more, honestly, more useful for the Iranians navy is what they're going to be using to target a lot of these commercial ships, and that is, honestly, the more direct threat as opposed to the big corvettes and the big frigates and things like that that the US Navy has very easily destroyed. These smaller boats are a tougher challenge, and there are plenty of places where they are still located that have not been struck yet. So, those are probably going to be targeted quite ruthlessly over the next few weeks if the United States intends to stay in this war for any length of time. Concerning the Strait of Hormuz itself, there are two main naval bases which threaten the region, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, both of which have been mostly destroyed. So, we've sunk a lot of ships, a lot of submarines, a lot of surface vessels pier-side at these facilities. So, using either of these comparatively deepish water ports would be pretty hard to do. I don't know if we could have used them anyway. I don't know the actual depth of the harbor. I can't remember that off the top of my head, but either way, it doesn't look like the US is interested in using Bandar Abbas or Chabahar because we're just blowing everything up there. Similar story with most of the airfields and logistical centers that are within helicopter range of the coastline. Many, but not all of these locations have been destroyed to the point where it indicates that the US does not really see any military value of their own at most of these facilities. So far, all indications point to the US continuing to strike every single military and government site in the country in addition to a lot of random stuff that doesn't really have a military use. The runways at almost all military airfields throughout Iran have been cratered, which indicates that the US does not intend to use them anytime soon. For many installations around the nation, scorched earth is the policy, or at least so it seems at the moment. This could change at any point, but right now, there are plenty of installations around the nation that have not yet been targeted, so this war could last a long time if the goal is to destroy everything. More generally, the overall end goals of the war remain largely unknown. Rhetoric from the White House has been very confusing and very contradictory by the hour sometimes to the point that it's far more reliable to look at the actions taken on the battlefield to discern the strategy rather than listening to what political leadership has said. At the White House, it's Groundhog Day these days. I did not know this, but apparently the Iranians have a magic navy, which somehow is sunk every single day. Every day it's sunk, and the next day it's sunk again. Same with the military infrastructure throughout Iran. Every day it's completely destroyed until the next strike, and then it's really destroyed until the next strike when it's totally for reals destroyed until the next strike when it's actually pinky swear destroyed this time. So, this entire conflict is like Schrödinger's war, where the Iranians are simultaneously the worst threat to all of mankind, but we've also totally destroyed them and crushed them into dust because we're so totally awesome. So, we can see the propaganda here is pretty terrible, but this does make it hard to determine what the next targets will be and how much the United States is interested in going along with this war. So far, the US has bombed a lot of infrastructure throughout Iran. That's easily verifiable, and the video clips of missiles and rocket launchers being struck are very easy to see. However, for every one clip that CENTCOM puts on their page, there are probably a hundred more random places that got bombed which we cannot see the utility of. How do we know that this is not a repeat of what I myself saw in Iraq and Syria when my targeting shop spent most of the war bombing empty buildings. The truth is, we don't. We don't know that most of what's been bombed is a legitimate military target, and we can't trust anything the White House and the Pentagon say because they openly lied about the strike on the girl's school, which has been a rabbit hole that I have not had time to go down just yet. I'm not ignoring that one. I promise, I'm digging into it, and I have a lot of very strong feelings on that one. But, the point that I'd like to make by bringing that up is that the United States initially denied, denied, denied. They initially their knee-jerk reaction was to lie. Their knee-jerk reaction was to immediately say, "No, we didn't do it. It was the Iranians that did it." And then wait a week, and then suddenly the United States is the one who did it, right? It took two seconds to find out whether or not we bombed that site. It took two seconds to look up the basic encyclopedia number, the BE number, within MIDB, the Modernized Integrated Database. It was a phone call that the White House could have made or anybody with the right access to that system could have made to determine, did we drop a Joint Desired Point of Impact or JDPIs on that facility, yes or no? Tomahawks don't just fly without guidance. Somebody had to put that GPS coordinate there, and that GPS coordinate, most civilians might know it as a GPS coordinate, but really what it is is a Joint Desired Point of Impact or a JDPI, in this case, the case of the school, probably several JDPIs, and the United States of America knew within five seconds of finding out that that was a bad target, that that was a bad target. They knew instantly, and they lied about it. That was their knee-jerk reaction. So, when it comes to any other further targeting efforts, we cannot trust them at all. So, the overall challenge here is that it's hard to determine what the actual combat goals of the war actually are and how much combat power the Iranians have at this point. We can't trust the Iranians, and we can't trust our own government to tell us the truth about what they're actually doing in this war. So, we have to guess, and I don't like guessing, especially since the drones and the missiles keep flying. And two weeks after the most powerful military in the history of the world began combat operations in that country, Iran has still managed to sling a few ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and launch drones at a dozen US military bases throughout the region every single night. How long they could keep this up is anyone's guess. I think the Pentagon is probably hoping that they will just stop one day or they'll run out of drones, they'll run out of missiles, or they'll finally get the last ones. But, I personally do not feel very confident in continuing a war on the Iranian's terms, a nation built around the concept of insurgency at the nation-state level. Joint Publication 3-6-0 and the deliberate targeting cycle will help you destroy buildings and static targets in Iran, but it won't help you win the wider war. If the end goal of that war is to ensure that the Iranians cannot pose a threat to Israel or threaten shipping in the strait. Two weeks into this thing, the Strait of Hormuz is contested battle space. Just think about that for a minute. It is contested battle space, and it is leaning in Iran's favor. Same thing with the Persian Gulf at large. We do not control this waterway. This is not to disparage the US Navy or anything like that, but this is just a fact of the case. The United States is not projecting sea power. We're not power projecting in the Persian Gulf at the moment because we cannot guarantee the safety of commercial vessels in the strait. We cannot endure freedom of navigation, and that's just something the Pentagon is having to deal with. Same thing with airspace. Again, not to disparage the US Air Force or anything like that, but the airspace over Iran is, per the Pentagon, still contested to some degree. I don't know how it is, but that's what the Pentagon has said. They still do not have totally uncontested airspace just yet. So, if we want to understand how this war is going, we really have to be realistic in what is happening and the threats that the Iranians pose because it is not a straightforward fight, and the doctrine of all belligerents in this war does not really fit together like a puzzle piece like Russia and Ukraine at the start of their war because those countries were very similar with similar ways of waging warfare. The United States and Iran could not be any more different in terms of overarching warfare doctrine, and since this war is largely for the Israelis as well, that adds in a third dynamic. So, there's no real way to answer the question of, are we winning? Instead, we have to answer really specific questions and evolving specific objectives and capabilities that all sides are able to maintain. So, as the war continues, it must be noted that the intel spiral is in full effect. Confirmation bias is rampant, and most structured analytic techniques or SATs are being thrown out the window, especially when it comes to what this war means for the American homeland. I know that for most of you, myself included, the more pertinent threats that you're concerned about day-to-day are in the American homeland. Yes, what's going on in the Middle East may be a concern, but really what's going to matter to you each day is what's happening in your own home, right? And on that front, the information space has gotten way out of control, right? Suddenly, conversations are not centered around what the threat actually is, but what the threat could theoretically be. That is a major difference between those two ideas. Such as the case a few days ago with the recent rumors that were circulating regarding potential Iranian threats off the west coast. The question is not, are the Iranians planning to launch drones from containers that secretly on board commercial shipping vessels? The answer to this question is obviously no, they're not planning to do that. Instead, the question that is asked, the question becomes can they theoretically do this? And the answer to that question is yes, because in theory anything is possible, however unlikely that it is. Well, that word unlikely gets stripped out of the report and that yes is then put on a PowerPoint slide which is subsequently leaked to the media. And now the whole West Coast is terrified that Santa Monica is going to turn into Dubai. Do you see how we've kind of spiraled out of control here with some of this stuff? The same thing appears to be happening in Iran itself when it comes to kinetic targeting. What's that building over there? Oh, it's a random outbuilding, they're not really using it for anything. Is it a military target? Well, no, there's not really anything there. But could it potentially have some kind of military use? Well, I guess, but I don't think so. Doesn't matter, stop, put it on a target list and kill it. This is absolute peak WMDs are in Iraq mentality and rhetoric and it's starting to get out of control. On the other hand, for those of us who are trying to figure out how this is all going to affect the homeland, we have in many ways slowly returned to the Biden era in terms of information control. The political left is trying to do everything they can to make Trump look bad, but they are also divided because they don't want to point out that the population demographics that are most likely to present dangers to the homeland are the exact same people they imported wholesale over the past few years. Likewise, many people who initially supported Trump are absolutely terrified to come out and voice any concerns about this war because they will lose friends and maybe even their jobs, just like during the Biden years. And let's not forget that even during the height of COVID, it was easier to speak out against the policy decisions then than it is now to mention even the name of the foreign nation that has openly bragged about dragging the US into fighting their war. This topic is the absolute peak of censorship and it's affecting threat assessments on the home front at this point. So, apart from the war itself, we're kind of in this Schrödinger's terrorism sort of thing. The same kind of thing that happened in the in the last few months of President Biden's administration. We can't admit that terrorism concerns are elevated because that might make people think that this war isn't worth it. But we also have to have terrorist attacks in the US to justify the war in the first place. All of this makes it very hard to assess the no kidding threats to the American homeland because the information space is like that metronome meme, right? It's flipping back and forth between overreacting to threats that don't exist and completely ignoring other threats which are very real concerns. It's really hard to find balance in a situation like that because everyone wants to flip back and forth between focusing on the wrong things and then ignoring the things that actually do matter. It's amazing how the internet works sometimes. What is pretty clear though is that the American populace is primed and ready for a series of events which may motivate more Americans to support the war. At the moment, the risk of a false flag incident occurring intended to drag the US deeper into the war is exceptionally high. I never thought I'd say it, I never thought this would be a real thing that we had talk about in the open, right? Other than just like being a fun conspiracy theory, but they may actually do something. I don't know. They may have already tried. I don't know. More pertinently and also probably safer to talk about are the likelihood of malign actors, either Iranian or otherwise, attempting to take advantage of the fray, conducting legitimate terror attacks so as to bring some attention to their cause. That's also pretty likely and I think that the terrorist attacks this week have done the same thing. The guys that threw the bombs at Jake Lang's event had no ties to the Iranians, they were not Iranian sleeper agents. The terrorist who tried to shoot up ODU was from Sierra Leone and had, again, nothing to do with Iran. And also the guy who attacked the synagogue in Michigan, some reports state that he was affiliated with Lebanon, so that's not I mean that's that is more directly related to the current conflict that's going on, but it's not because of his allegiance to his allegiance to Iran, it's due to his allegiance to uh groups in Lebanon, either Hezbollah or because his family got killed. So, again, not exactly an Iranian sleeper agent that is being directed by the Iranian government, right? We've had three major terrorist attacks in the United States since this war began and they've all been from other groups or other causes or other political goals that are trying to take advantage of the increased emotions and likelihood of success with terrorist attacks. How many Iranian sleeper agents have been activated to take out targets in the United States? Well, as of right now, if we're just going by what reports that we have, how many successful attacks have Iranian sleeper agents conducted in the United States? Zero. How many other terrorist groups have taken advantage of the fray to conduct attacks of their own for their own causes? Well, right now at least three just this week and probably a couple more last week. It depends on how you want to categorize it, but it's not zero, right? So, at bare minimum, really the most that we can do is stay vigilant, stay prepared, stay situationally aware, stay strapped if you can, and keep your head on a swivel over the next few weeks. That's the best that we can do. It's no different from the way that we've been living for the past few years, at least most of us, right? Or many of us. We definitely do not need to be terrified of every possible conceivable threat that might exist in society, but we do need to be a little bit more attentive and a little bit more situationally aware these days because there are a lot of very upset people and they're looking to cause a lot of harm. So, on that rather foreboding note, I think that's all I have for today. So, let's wrap things up with the Ghost Net reports for this week. Sometimes it's good to take a break from a lot of this stuff and get outside and do something different. And the Ghost Net is a good way to do that and also do those equipment checks that we all like to do so much just to make sure everything works and that at least some of us can maintain some level of communications capability in a manner that is not easy to take offline. So, if the past couple of weeks have had you being terminally online and glued to your phone for up-to-the-minute updates on everything, it might uh help to change that vector a little bit and switch to radio for a bit. You can still stay informed, uh but you can see uh some of the other stuff that's going on around the world as well. Because I'm not sure if anyone's noticed, but it's become quite unbearable in the information space these days. Fifth generation warfare or whatever you want to call it is going absolutely insane. Propaganda and even worse, subversion, is going around on all sides. Even I myself have had a really, really tough time with this over the past couple of weeks, but with radio, it's much harder to censor and you can take back a tiny portion of the world of information. You probably cannot build your own version of Twitter, at least not easily, but you can buy a radio and assert dominance on the airwaves and shape the next generation of radio communications. And that's what I hope to continue doing for as long as possible, no matter how locked down things become on social media. For those who are interested in my mapping products, you all know where to find everything and all the links are in the description box below. I am trying to put out a lot more raw information than analysis these days, so the raw information is always there to do with it what you will. In today's challenging information environment, sourcing material is incredibly important. A lot of people seem to want that quite a bit and you can find all the sources for all of my war reports at the bottom of each war report on my Obsidian page. So, if you want the raw sourcing to come to your own conclusions on things, go ahead, go for it, it's all there. And of course, for those of you who provide support on Patreon, make sure you open up a tag every now and then to refresh the data layers I've loaded in because I have been updating everything on average at several times per day since the war began. And for those of you who just want to pull my work into whatever GPS mapping application you need, my map layers and products are hosted on my GitHub page as KMZ files. So, that's all I have for today. Thank you for sticking around. I really do appreciate it and I hope to improve things on the information front soon now that the war has settled in for the long haul, at least for now. The threats within the homeland continue and I hope to get ahead of the curve before the war in the Middle East gets more serious and by default, the threats within the homeland become more serious as well. So, we'll keep at it and do the best we can. And as always, fight on the shade.
Intel Update · 2021-08-23
all right good morning again everyone welcome back to the s2 underground uh this is the kabul update for monday august 23rd as of about 11 a.m eastern standard time so let's jump right into it uh quite a few updates over the past couple of days so let's start with the most pressing which is a lot of rumors or sort of confirmed not really confirmed reports of isis the islamic state threatening personnel refugees american soldiers coalition soldiers in and around the kabul airport so this is something that we kind of expected the islamic state still does maintain control of very very small parts of terrain they are sort of like an insurgency within the insurgency so when the afghanistan war was going on we had tamped down isis pretty good they were only in very small select areas in the in the very rugged and rough terrain in down in nangahar a few of them pushed forth and forward up into kunar uh and where they sort of just hit out and a few of them remained in and around the kabul area so there are some reports reports coming from both the taliban themselves and u.s intelligence that are indicating that isis is trying to target and sort of increase their own brand so remember they are sort of the with the insurgency within the insurgency uh the taliban are enemies of isis uh as of now but as anyone knows who's been in and around the afghanistan conflict for a while uh allegiances uh come and go like the wind so one day someone can say they're isis the next day they could say their taliban it just really just depends on on how how the wind's blowing that day i suppose so it depends on a lot of factors as if these threats are genuine it's best to say probably they are with a lot more and more people getting crammed into the area around the airport and even inside the airport itself that's just a ripe opportunity for some separatist group or some agency that we haven't even heard of a splinter group of a splinter group of a splinter group to come out and conduct an attack so they could get their street cred up so that's always a threat it's pretty minimal at this time but we we really don't know so i'm sure the official us intelligence reports have more on it but from our ocean side of the house and the open source open source world there's just really not much information out about it also overall the situation has been worsening over the past couple of days and particularly around the night time us and coalition troops have had to close all of the gates into the airport for a few different reasons for one capacity inside the airport is just too much and the security forces are not being able to control the crowds inside the airport as well as they should or as well as they could so they're having to actually shut the gates and leave people outside until they can clear some people out with you know getting them out on flights so it's a way of keeping the the area uh secure and not not crowded and things like that so just be be mindful of the fact you might see reports from a lot of journalists over the next couple of days of hey these gates are closed why are they closed well that that's why it's just capacity reasons and also sometimes if there's a shooting or or somebody gets unruly or something like that they will close the gates just to kind of help you know let things dissipate and let things work it work its way out i'll let people calm down a little bit and then they'll resume getting people inside the gates also on the political slash u.s front here at home the civil reserve air fleet has been activated by the the presidential regime uh government so uh this is basically the united states government drafting different airframes physical aircraft from civilian airliners uh commercial commercial airlines to shuttle people outside of non-combat zones so we'll talk we'll talk a little bit more about how the evacuation process is going once you get out of afghanistan but right now it's i think 18 i think 12 to 18 aircraft have been formally drafted into the u.s military control so that they can shuttle people uh around the world once they're out of the combat zone they're not sending in you know at american airlines you know you know 737 into kabul that's they're not doing that other countries are but uh the united states is not doing that and it's only a few airframes this is a program that's been around for a while for a very long time actually and it's something it's sort of like a lottery u.s american airlines american commercial airlines they basically draw straws for a specific period of time and that during that specific period of time they have to make sure that they have aircraft that are ready to go at a moment's notice within a 48-hour 24-hour window and that's been that's happened it happened on friday we got the warning that it happened on friday and it's now officially happened and that has the aircraft are being transferred right now also speaking bringing things back to the gates themselves there's been a lot of confusion at the actual gates with soldiers from different nations being manning these very cramped quarters there's been a lot of confusion as to what kind of paperwork gets is needed or required so there was a lot of reports last night or sorry two nights ago of canadian citizens with proper paperwork being uh turned away at the gates because the guards did not know that they the canadians had special paperwork so that's something to keep in mind is if you have people or if you yourself unlikely that you're watching this video but if you yourself or your interpreter or something like that is trying to get through the gates and they have non-standard paperwork or if they have paperwork from a different nation or something like that it's best to find a gate that you can get through uh well get through in the first place i suppose but just be mindful that you might get turned away uh in the confusion of this now a lot of this by the time this video gets out will probably be corrected but i just want to let everyone know this situation is about as confusing as it can possibly get so just bear with everyone they're going to get everybody out it's just going to take some time and speaking of paperwork the taliban has been reportedly halting locals uh stopping them at their own checkpoints before they can get to the the coalition checkpoints at the actual airport itself this is something that it's a lot of its rumor uh but we have seen this happen and the reasons of which are are mixed so the us and well the u.s isn't really saying much at all but like reporters or people familiar with the united states side of the situation are saying that the taliban is stopping locals from leaving so local afghans like interpreters or or people that are just trying to get a p2 visa they're not letting them leave if they have other coalition paperwork they're letting them through so that's one story another story is from the taliban itself they're saying that no they're not they're only stopping people who don't have any paperwork to leave the country so like people that are just trying to be spectators or trying to to take advantage of the situation they're stopping people that that that are like that now of course that's the taliban and they're known to lie about pretty much everything they do so there's that and then other reports are saying that there's really no problems whatsoever this is the us government story and we know that that's just an utter lie so there are problems getting through checkpoints getting through the actual airport itself getting through taliban checkpoints and getting through the coalition checkpoints to the airport itself so that's a pretty good explanation of what's going on on the ground let's go ahead and jump to the map and talk a little bit more specifically about the situation on the ground as of this morning okay so here we are on the map this is wintec i've loaded in our kmz and our imagery that we have dropped we've been updating this kmz and the imagery constantly over the past three days and this is the latest information that we have so as you can see uh we colored the south side of h kaya yellow just to indicate that this is in fact a fluid zone uh there's really not it's not really not clear as to what's going on or who's where but it seems to me like everyone is everywhere so let's zoom right here into the pax terminal itself the the americans specifically the americans have sort of retaken or pushed back uh or negotiated with the taliban to push so that they could maintain control of the actual pax terminal itself uh the taliban do maintain a checkpoint right here that's uh confirmed as of this morning uh and actually see if i can zoom in yeah taliban 313 units a taliban special forces unit is stationed right here at this grid as of well this morning uh afghan time uh the actual corridor in and out from the main gate to the main pax terminal is fluid it looks like once you're past this point there are coalition forces here at this gate there are also taliban here at this gate mostly taliban but once you if you can get through you can usually make it un unmolested to the actual pax terminal that's if you can make it past this last taliban checkpoint these are like uh forward observation posts really for the taliban to keep an eye on the americans that are that are stationed there and these guys here are really just it's just pure bedlam right here uh dozens of cars all kinds of heavy machine guns mounted machine guns crew served weapons everywhere uh we're even seeing light artillery light artillery like mortars and things like that but they're they're trying to keep those hidden it's really just a show of force anybody who can carry a tube can carry it right so uh pushing forward over here to the abbey gate uh situation there there are crowds all along the every square inch of uh perimeter border around the airport is clogged with thousands of people so there's that hotel baron is located right here not going to talk much about that at this time pushing forward over here to eastgate again large large crowds uh and then north gate as well right here still lots of crowds now let me go ahead and turn on a specific layer for you guys okay i turned on the layer in the kmz that shows the actions over the past 24 hours or so so there was a small arms firefight this morning between afghan former a a who are maintaining security alongside german soldiers and unknown assailants so like i mentioned earlier these these small attacks uh as as one might understand and like i mentioned in the i think the very first briefing uh the taliban is not a they're not as hierarchical as a coalition forces right so it's not like a taliban commander says you know do this this is these are your marching orders and everyone's just going to follow the orders now 99 will but the cellular nature and the the gorilla nature of taliban forces over the years has indicated that or it just means that you're going to have some rogue dudes and uh rogue dudes are dangerous so these could be taliban guys it could be isis they could just be some you know hooligans that are trying to take advantage of the situation that's a very uh a very prevalent threat right now people trying to steal stuff or extort civilians that men might not necessarily be taliban or isis or just bad dudes all right so that's the situation uh oh let me actually point out there was a vbiad threat vehicle born ied threat at the abbey gate it was cleared pretty much as soon as reporters found out about it i don't know if it was genuine or not it could be anything right the situation is just changing by the second so it's hard to say what's what's actually going on yeah that is the situation on the ground of really the most significant updates over the past couple of days uh really the rest of the city hkia proper like uh here to the west and down south uh things are pretty normal like it's shockingly normal you hop on snapchat maps or on twitter and you start hopping on the um the actual local language twitter accounts for a lot of these areas and it's it looks like it's not not there's nothing going on honestly now granted there's taliban everywhere throughout the whole city and they're they're taking over everything every government checkpoint every government building is now has a lot of taliban soldiers outside of it but honestly you you wouldn't notice if you look at a lot of the snapchat stories and things from these areas so really the most chaotic parts of the city are hkaia itself and in some parts of the former green zone but that's really just because there's a lot of taliban uh in the former green zone uh it's sort of like their um their prize right their spoils of war so going through those buildings and getting what they can and you know setting up outside the u.s embassy is kind of a pride thing for them so let's jump back to the powerpoint let's talk a little bit about the future and as well as some of the other things that have been going on around the country over the past couple of days all right so like i mentioned the northern alliance is back in town uh the son of the former leader of the northern alliance uh is is back and is uh conducting a lot of combat actions so as of august 19th this was this is a map of obviously afghanistan of all the districts that the taliban controlled and it was all of them all of the districts were controlled uh by the taliban on august 19th moving forward into the 21st we can actually see that the taliban actually lost quite a few districts to these guys northern alliance fighters are just popping up everywhere the guys up north have always been a little bit different so and they remember fighting the taliban last time so a lot of those districts were pretty quickly overwhelmed now it's hard to say if that overwhelming was done due to the skill of the northern alliance guys or just because they had strength in numbers at that particular time we have been seeing over the past couple of days uh significant numbers of taliban we're talking several thousand up to three thousand um have been pushing forward into these areas to retake them so as you can see a lot of these areas are contested yesterday the northern alliance actually lost a couple of districts but they took a couple we would classify them as being taken granted the situation is still fluid and as of this morning things are pretty much right back to where they were a couple of days ago with things still being contested most likely it looks as of right now that the northern alliance is is they're winning in their respective areas because they are striking with speed and with strength in numbers in those specific districts but once the taliban war machine gets uh spun up and they can move their fighters up there up there up north uh things are gonna things are gonna change so uh that's something to keep in mind and definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few days uh to see how that northern alliance resistance movement is uh kicking off so finally i wanted to touch on how the refugee situation is working once people get out of kabul once they get out of afghanistan what is actually happening so this is kind of busy and there's a lot of stuff going on so let's just take it a step at a time so first is once the flights leave kabul they you know they transit out via the normal air corridor and land in doha qatar cutter uh from there that's a staging area they either land there or if doha is full which has happened over a couple of days literally they just can't process any more people they transit to american bases in kuwait but most most people like the overwhelming majority people are going to doha and then from doha they're actually going to ramstein air base in germany for further on processing or once they get to ramstein they then can file their paperwork and get things organized to actually transit to follow-on nations to wherever they're going there are a couple other ways to get out of afghanistan though so another route that's very common is to go through tashkent through the through the capital of uzbekistan they're they've been very helpful in facilitating that movement directly out of kabul for a lot of civilian airliners uh and there's also another route which is uh sorry once they get to tashkent that's that's not a final destination for a lot of people that's they're going to go elsewhere so that's really just a staging area at this point even though uzbekistan is going to most likely take a lot of refugees also in uh new delhi uh in india has taken a lot of direct flights uh they've rescued i think a few hundred people at this at this point maybe a couple thousand honestly by now uh so that's really these are really really the main avenues of departure for leaving the country now as far as which nations are taking whom uh so far uh there are a list of temporary staging nations so the nations in which people are just going to temporarily stay are qatar kuwait germany turkey uzbekistan pakistan tajikistan kosovo albania northern macedonia italy and switzerland it's not clear as to if the people that are staying there right now in these countries are going to stay there or not some nations have stated yeah these are just this is just a temporary situation till we get things figured out other nations have indicated that they're going to take more uh that some of those some of the refugees can stay there and it of course depends on nationality as well now as far as commonwealth nations uh all members of the four eyes community have uh said that they're either going to assist or help or or take some it's really uh hard to say but obviously the the four eyes community is really uh leading the leading the effort when it comes to uh then probably the numbers that they're going to take also western europe these nations france germany belgium denmark and poland they have indicated that they are going to take some or they have already taken some also eastern europe czech republic and italy really most european nations have been very very hesitant to actually commit to saying yeah we're going to take all of your refugees or we're going to take some of your refugees or we're going to take only these citizens or we're not going to take you know normal afghans but we'll take interpreters it's just really confusing nobody wants to take these refugees to be honest because europe has a refugee crisis already so without delving too much into politics it's it's a complicated situation and there's a lot of political actors on all sides pulling everything different ways and it's hard to say who's going to go where central south america really only colombia has expressed interest in taking some refugees and likewise same thing in africa only uganda has said they're going to take refugees i think they actually have taken 300 so far and as far as your brics nations brazil has indicated that they will use the same uh track that they developed to take venezuelan refugees you can if you're afghan you can now use that same track to get into brazil uh russia interestingly has indicated that they are not going to take any refugees from afghanistan they're the only nation that i've seen so far that has said that they're not going to take anybody everybody else has just kind of either not said anything or they've said like we'll figure it out russia has said vladimir putin himself said flat out no we're not taking any now they did not say that they wouldn't help transfer people and lend resources and things like that but they he said that they can't they can't come here essentially and then also india has already taken quite a few refugees and is planning to take even more as we move forward so just another reminder we have all of these resources available on our odyssey page if the link will be in the description box below just in case you guys wanted these files we'll be updating them constantly as long as uh the situation is is going on we're going to be following this really until it closes out so all these briefings will be on there we've realized we've probably got a lot of new members and a lot of new followers to the channel uh over the past few days so if you don't like youtube and or it's not working for you go to odyssey all of our videos are backed up there and this is where we're dropping all of our stuff like the kabul imagery pack we've pre-downloaded a series of of images and geotiff files that are easy to put on gps's and end user devices and things like that if you wanted to either follow along or you are trying to use this for your own intel collection and things like that go for it there you go we're updating this kmz i think we're on version 17 now um and we're going to consistently keep updating that with information as the time as time goes on and once again just wanted to show this slide again for people who have not seen it this is some resources you can use if you're trying to get out of the country or if you are trying to help people get out of the country right now there are a lot of people trying to help with this situation which is outstanding uh but that does not mean that the situation is less confusing and immigration is confusing on a normal tuesday right and it's even more confusing in an emergency situation so uh really there there's not much that we american citizens can do to help people on the ground but we're doing what we can uh to help get some of these to get to get all of these americans home safe and sound and our allies as well so thanks everybody for watching stay tuned for the next update we'll we'll have it out soon and we'll continue to update all the all the products that we've been putting out on this and once again thank you everyone for all of your support and we will see you next time and always remember to fight in the shade
The Wire · 2026-02-25
//The Wire//2200Z February 25, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MEXICAN TRUCKING UNION BEGINS LABOR STRIKE DUE TO CJNG AMBUSHING DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS. AMERICAN FORCES CONTINUE SURGING INTO MIDDLE EAST AS NEGOTIATIONS LOOM. CUBAN FORCES KILL 4 AMERICANS IN SMALL BOAT DURING SKIRMISH IN CUBAN WATERS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The surge of American forces into the region continues, with non-stop flights of C-17's and C-5 cargo aircraft transferring supplies into CENTCOM. Fighter aircraft movements continue as well, with another flight of F-22's departing the United States for Lakenheath overnight, to supplement the 12x F-22's which transitioned to the Middle East a few days ago.
Analyst Comment: On the diplomatic front, negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to take place tomorrow in Geneva. So far no real word how things might go, but if the prior negotiations are any indication, stalling for time will probably be a main goal of all parties involved.
Caribbean: This afternoon the Cuban Embassy released a press statement confirming that 4x Americans were killed during an incident that took place in Cuban waters just north of Cayo Falcones. Cuban forces reportedly attempted to interdict an American speedboat, and when approached by Border Guard forces, the passengers onboard the vessel began shooting. The Cubans returned fire, killing 4x passengers and wounding 6x others.
Analyst Comment: As this is a developing incident at the time of this report, nothing is known beyond the initial press release as posted by Cuba. No American agency or diplomatic post has commented on the situation yet, and the details of what happened are single-source reporting (from the Cuban government) at the moment. More information is expected throughout the evening as the situation develops.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Mexico, the situation remains tenuous as clashes have continued between Cartel and Government forces over the past few days. Random roadblocks and skirmishes pop up sporadically around the country, which have made travel unpredictable for many throughout the region.
Government forces have continued raids in the wake of the initial targeting of El Mencho. Yesterday, the Mexican government confirmed the death of El Tuli, El Mencho's Operations Chief, who was killed in a similar raid as his boss. Removing the OPs guy from the CJNG the day after El Mencho was killed probably stunted the response to the initial raid, however random ambushes continue on the highways, largely unabated. These ambushes usually seek to target large semi-trucks, which Cartel members use to block roadways via setting on fire.
As a result, this morning, the Mexican Alliance of Transportation Organizations A.C. (AMOTAC, the largest trucking union in Mexico), declared a labor strike due to a total of six truck drivers being murdered in these ambushes throughout the country over the past two days. This strike has largely taken the form of truck drivers refusing to drive, with some even setting their own trucks on fire, before the cartel has the chance to do it. These types of labor strikes are common throughout Mexico, as highway robbery is a common threat throughout Latin America. Consequently, logistical problems are very likely nationwide throughout the next few days, as CJNG forces engage in the time-tested guerilla warfare tactics that made them famous.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
Intel Update · 2025-05-24
Hello everyone. This is the Intel update for May 18th through the 24th, 2025. So, let's get right to it. Right, to start with, probably the biggest annoyance for today and honestly really just the rest of uh this previous week has been the widespread outages at Twitter. Many of you have been affected by these outages. So, I'm sure that's been a little bit of a frustrating point for uh today, Saturday morning, but my account has actually been suffering from problems and issues really throughout the week. So, on the down detector website, you can kind of see the huge spike this morning of people reporting outages. But as you can see along the bottom there, there have been a few people who have been unlucky enough to be affected by that throughout the week. And I am unfortunately one of those unlucky customers. So, I haven't been able to access notifications for 5 days now. I've been able to access messages for about an hour a day this week. So, yeah. Uh, not great. And it's unfortunately made uh things rather difficult to find out exactly what's going on because as it turns out a lot of the mainstream media sources for what uh what has transpired this week simply just don't exist because a lot of the stories that have been very important uh to be aware of have not been covered by mainstream media. So that's been kind of annoying. But in terms of actual events going on around the world here on the home front there has been a lot of recovery efforts ongoing throughout the Midwest. A lot of severe weather continuing this time of year. This is a seasonal thing. So, it's certainly uh not a new development by any means. This time of year, the storm season always kicks up. Unfortunately, this year uh the weather season appears to be a little bit more kinetic than it has been in years past. And unfortunately, that is coinciding with a lot of infrastructure problems and experienced problems with people who may be responsible for emergency management kind of things. So, there are a few cases around the country, most notably in St. Louis, uh where there appeared to have been a problem with their tornado siren system. Now, uh, the story is still developing, so I don't want to comment on it too much. However, a lot of claims are being made that the system was actually fine. It it worked just just, uh, the way it's supposed to. The person who was responsible for activating it either did not know or forgot how to do it. So, this is, of course, an investigation that is ongoing. We'll have to definitely see what's uh, what comes of it over the next few days, but the past few weeks have certainly not been uneventful on the weather front throughout most of the central United States. Similarly, around the country, there have been various concerns with civil aviation, most notably in Newark, which we'll get to in a moment. But it's hard to gauge and convey exactly how serious uh some of these things are. Sometimes they get blown out of proportion by the media, such as a minor unused frequency going down for an airport that doesn't really get a whole lot of traffic, an outage of a couple of seconds while somebody flips a switch to transfer to a new system. That's not really as big of a crisis as radio traffic being lost for the entire airport for many minutes. It's not the same kind of thing, but it's been kind of hard to convey exactly which uh situations are are worth being concerned about. But more generally speaking, at the wavetop level, we can most certainly be aware of uh a lot of these vulnerabilities as they come about. So, it's not all doom and gloom. It's not as bad as I'm sure some people may want to make it out to be. There are people fixing some of these problems, but there are some other problems that are becoming a lot more pertinent as we figure out exactly where these vulnerabilities lie. So, we'll have to revisit this in a few weeks, of course, but for right now, it's just something to be mindful of is, you know, infrastructure problems do not magically go away uh simply because an election occurs. So, a lot of hard work is definitely needed and will be needed in the future. Switching gears over in Europe, there have been a rather sharp increase or at least a reporting increase in violent attacks throughout the continent. Most notably in Germany, there were three in a day uh yesterday. So, that was a rather big concern. I don't know if this is more of a seasonal thing or if this is any kind of increase in in the baseline of activity. To me, it seems like it's an increase in the baseline. I don't know. So, there's going to be a lot of speculation, especially throughout Europe, where it's very much impossible in some cases to find out if an event actually took place or if there's any record at all of any kind of stabbing. So, we're really shooting from the hip when it comes to these attacks in Europe a lot of the time. And unfortunately, there's not a whole lot we can do about it. So, we have to be mindful of it, weigh the information as it comes in, take things with a grain of salt, but ultimately be aware of what's going on. On the diplomatic front this week, there have been a lot of developments, but mostly just rhetoric back and forth. From what I can see, again, this is very speculative, but from what I can see, there are two main lines of effort that are going on throughout the Middle East at least. and that is narrative shaping operations to make it seem like the Iranian talks are going well and that an agreement will be reached soon and information operations that are being conducted to suggest the opposite that the talks are on the cusp of failing and that war is imminent. Honestly, I don't know which side of the story to believe. To me, there haven't really been enough details released to gauge either way how the situation's going. No news is good news and we'll just have to wait and see if there's anything big that comes from it. So, that's the wave top view for this week. Let's move over to strategic movement. Once again, not a whole lot of change this week. This this slide doesn't get a whole lot of movement change to be honest, but it's good to to be aware of where our resources are going. Of course, this is always going to be stale by several days, sometimes a couple of weeks, but for the most part, not a whole lot of movement. I have been keeping an eye on Diego Garcia for those of you who are wondering. There has not been any good coverage, a lot of cloud coverage over the past, well, few weeks, honestly. So, whatever is going on there is still going on. Uh, I'm definitely keeping an eye on it because that's a good indicator for diplomacy overseas, I suppose. But not a lot of change overall. The the Truman carrier strike group is headed home, I believe. She was spotted in the med a few days ago, so uh thankfully her rather tough deployment is is coming to an end, and uh we can kind of move on past that. So hopefully she makes it home. Okay, moving over to the kinetic activity tracker. This week has been rather kinetic honestly, but it doesn't look like it on the map. Uh mostly because a lot of the things that have happened have been either nationwide and not pinned down to a specific grid coordinate or it's just been a continuation of things that I don't think are worth putting on the map like routine street crime. But uh we'll cover some of these pucks here in a moment. And uh here is the total database. Again, this is just the kinetic activity tracker, the border crisis tracker, and all the immigration related stuff. that's really really data heavy. So I've separated that out entirely to be its own separate map. So if you want to go see my work on that, definitely uh check that out. For this week, it seems like most of the pucks that I've put on the map have fallen in Europe, of course, within Germany, which we'll get to in just a moment. So yeah, for all the European viewers out there, please forgive me if I'm not able to stay up to date as much as I'd like to with all the happenings throughout Europe, but I'm starting to get caught up now that I've got a lot of templates made for things and I'm trying to develop a lot of data sources and things like that. that I'll be able to more uh more accurately plot what's going on throughout Europe. It'll get better with time, though. And speaking of improvements, I'm starting to publish semid I'm going to say daily, but I don't think I'm going to publish it every day. Uh semi-aily KMZs of both of these maps. So, I have the common intelligence picture, the online map that you guys see with all of my RGIs layers that I've I've created, and also the border crisis map as well. So, as a separate KMZ. So, for those of you who are looking for ATAC integration, uh, fear not, that's coming. For right now, though, I'm just uh going to start publishing these KMZs, it's fairly easy for me to do on my end. So, I figured why not why not do it. So, if you guys want a KMZ of all my databases, there you go. I'm still working on a way to automate this a little bit better. Uh, but for right now, this is kind of what I've got. It may look like the uh online maps are linked to this somehow. This is not a pull of what is being put online. This is a pull of what's on my computer. So sometimes the data may not match. One may be a little bit more upto-date than the other. But basically when I'm running ARJS on my computer, I can publish to the internet and I can publish to a KMZ for in in layman's terms, right? I try to publish these at the same time every day, but you know how it goes. Things happen. So um I'm working on the automation to make this more streamlined and to kind of take me, you know, the human weak link out of the system. But but for now this is what I've got. So let's move into the regions for this week. Uh a lot of tenuous topics to cover honestly up in the northeast region. For instance in New Jersey the scandal surrounding the Delaney detention facility has continued. The US attorney has dropped the charges against the mayor of Newark who was originally charged with a couple others for trespassing. Uh those charges have been dropped with no no real explanation as to why. So that's interesting. However, the the state representative Lam Monica Macyver who was criminally charged for assaulting uh ICE personnel. Uh those charges are still going, but I'll be willing to bet in a couple weeks they're probably going to be dropped. But anyway, something to be mindful of. Also, in New Jersey, the New York airport situation has really just continued. Um there's been a lot of rhetoric about this one, and I'm not entirely certain as to what's true or not. However, from the outside looking in, uh from the very wavetop level, this place is still pretty risky. Now, how how and whom we want to point the fingers to uh is going to vary. Um but just from the very tiptop wave level, it appears that the repairs and efforts are still ongoing at Newark. They're still they're trying to do uh from what I can tell, they're trying to fix things, but it's still a fairly risky time for communications outages in and out of the airport. So the FAA has reduced the aircraft going in and out of not just this one airport, but I'm fairly certain they've reduced what's what's coming in and out of this entire sector. So that kind of shows you how serious it is. And out of an abundance of caution, uh just kind of keeping an eye on this would be a good idea. Moving down to the southeast region, just wanted to mention what's going on in Washington DC. It's been rather busy as you guys probably have seen over the past few days in DC. First of all, there was the murder of two Israeli embassy staffers by one suspect who has since been detained and identified as Elias Rodriguez. Now, the media blitz over this has been absolutely insane. So, I'm not going to comment on this too much other than to say this is probably going to be a very important event to be aware of because of what's about to happen over the next two to three weeks. My guess is that this will be a very good means uh and opportunity for a lot of um federal intelligence collection to kind of spool up um even more so than they already are and a lot of um uh crackdowns one way or the other to occur. So, it's a very dangerous topic to talk about. This is a very high-profile instance that I I think it would be wise to just wait and see how this pans out because the the international ramifications are very serious. uh anytime an embassy staffer gets killed anywhere in the world, that's that's going to have an international, you know, ramification, they're they're diplomatically, you know, protected more or less personnel. But considering the context of this situation, um I I think that that this could get very serious. So, we're just going to wait and see, be mindful of it, and we're going to have to see how this pans out, not just in the international space, but also in the domestic space. Right? This is a very big high-profile event and I don't think that it's going to turn out super well when it comes to federal agencies being involved over the next few weeks. So, we'll just have to see. Similarly, and rather interestingly, there was also a gate ramming at the CIA headquarters on the same day. I can't figure out if it was before or after this uh initial instance. I know that initially people thought that or there was some speculation that thought that okay, well, maybe this is linked together. At the moment, I don't think they're linked. So, this may have been a DUI situation, considering that the woman who was detained uh she was shot uh and detained at the scene for trying to run the gate at Langley. But most of the mainstream media articles that have written about this story claim that local authorities claim that she has a history of drunk driving. So, it doesn't look like it was a terrorist attack. I mean, it may be. It may be a cover up. Who knows? Uh something to be mindful of. Anytime a gate ramming occurs, these things are very serious. But in this case, of course, the CIA headquarters being involved, it's going to be very, very secret squirrel. So, I would venture a guess as to say that very few details, if any at all, will come out of that. And speaking of very little information this week, let's move over to Western Europe. I don't know about anybody else, but I have had a rather challenging time trying to figure out exactly what's going on in Europe these days. And I think it has to do a lot with an increased effort in media suppression. For instance, throughout Germany, there were three uh stabbing instances. There was a mass stabbing attack in Hamburg that uh got a lot of media attention. So, that one's a little bit more clear. The asalent themselves, uh who they are and what their deal is is a little bit more unclear. So, that's challenging to get some information on. However, there are many mainstream media sources which of course have a lot more going to say credence, but they're they're a little bit more um accessheavy. in Europe. There's not as much independent media in Europe as there is here in the United States. I'll say it that way. But anyway, this mass stabbing in Hamburg, there were a lot more details made public rather quickly. Whereas the other two stabbing instances are almost impossible to find any details on. It's so hard to find details on these two stabbing attacks that I for the longest time I really questioned as to whether or not they actually happened or if it was just a a straightup, you know, made up from the ground up false story. You guys can do the research on your own. Check out the sources as usual. But from what I can tell, these stabbings actually did occur, but the reason they're not talked about is because they involved juveniles in mutual combat. So, so at an elementary school in Remshine and at an elementary school in Berlin, there were two separate but still very serious stabbing instances where students were fighting each other and one pulls a knife and stabs the other very seriously. So, again, schoolyard fights are not what they used to be. uh these days this should be fairly obvious uh for anyone in the world nowadays but nevertheless uh these kinds of things tend to happen. Uh what I found to be most interesting is the fact that I just couldn't find any information on it at all. Similar story with the case down in France. There was a an axe murder at a grocery store uh at a town I think an hour or two north of Paris. Small town. Uh axe murder tends to be not something you hear about super often. And for the longest time, I again thought that this story was fake because there was only one like local French language independent media sort of thing talking about it, but now a few more sources have kind of confirmed that it did occur, you know. Um, yeah, pretty pretty violent. I I haven't been able to find out hardly any details on either the victims or the perpetrators in any of these attacks. The one in France, I think, was a case of mutual combat. Locals were stating as in allegedly eyewitnesses who saw the attack take place. Once again, you always have to take eyewitness testimony with a grain of salt, but it's the best we've got, so we'll have to go with it. Eyewitnesses stated that both the victim and the perpetrator were Turkish and they were settling a personal dispute is what it seemed like. I don't know if that's true or not. Makes sense, but just because it makes sense doesn't mean it's true. I'm afraid the old classic standby of we'll have to wait and see doesn't really work in cases like this because we almost never get any follow- on information. So, I guess the best we can do is plot it on the map, be aware that it occurred. If it didn't occur and it was a total fabrication, all right, at least we've, you know, made a risk assessment uh from a more um conservative perspective, right? A little bit more uh cautious. You know, that's that's never a bad thing. And at the end of the day, if we get more information, good. If we don't, well, at least we we won't let this be a memory hold. So, as a side note, just from a research perspective on this, I will be talking a lot more often in the next few weeks once I organize my notes a little bit better, uh, I will start to incorporate some of these stories that we may have forgotten about, right? May call it like out of the memory hole or something like that. I don't know. But anyway, that's going to be the goal is to to bring up, you know, some of these stories that kind of fall by the wayside and they're very important to remember because a lot of times something very serious happens and then we just forget about it, right? I know I do. So, now that I've gotten a lot more organization to my notes, this should be a little bit easier for me to do and uh because I think it's important, I'll pass it along to you guys as well. But give me a little bit more time to work on that. That's pretty much all I have for today. Uh this week's Ghost Net was very, very good. I've seen a lot of people transmitting throughout the week uh throughout the comm window as well. Also on Saturdays, I've seen a lot of people trying to use the data bridge to talk to Europe, especially on days like today where surprise surprise I go to start recording this update today and find out, oh, there's a power outage in K down there in southern France, just south of southwest of Nice, I think. Yeah, you know, fortuitous that a blackout occurs right more or less right during our communications window for the data bridges to Europe. But again, uh this will become a lot more um clear as to how it helps in the future. I know for a lot of you out there, most of you who are watching this probably won't give won't give a hoot about the radio stuff or uh won't be able to kind of put together why it's helpful or you know, I understand that there's also a very very big uh learning curve for this stuff. Don't worry, it's okay. We'll we'll get there. I'll uh I'll figure out how to make a lot of this easier in the future, especially with some of the stuff I'm working on that should come out next week or so. But for now, things are going very, very well uh with the ghost net. A lot of information exchange, a lot of stories that I have not heard about, including things like a Noah radio outage uh in New Jersey. So, for those of you who are in the Allentown, Pennsylvania area, uh somebody was reporting that a message was sent out over the Noah weather radio that their transmitter was down. So, I haven't found any kind of way to corroborate that, but I did want to mention it because again, I got this via radio. Uh and I think that's pretty cool. So, that's pretty much all I have for today. Here are the sources as usual. And of course, there are clickable links everywhere. Uh they're on the link tree page. They're on down in the video description. Depending on where you're watching this at, uh there will be a lot of options open to you. I'm sorry I'm not entirely organized on the link front just yet. Uh most of the links that I have are posted on my Obsidian page. So, you just go to the Obsidian link at the end of every single wire report. And pretty much everywhere I can post just one link, I've posted my Obsidian link. And from there, you'll be able to find a few pages with different links depending on what you're looking for. So, there's a lot of resources out there. They're open to you. I've already done the hard work to make them, so you might as well uh might as well use them. So, so that's all I have for today. Thank you again for all of your support that allows me to to keep on doing this work. And we will see you next time. And as always, fight in the shape.
The Wire · 2023-10-28
…engaged in foreign relations with Pilots using aggressive Maneuvers towards each other over the border and Waters between the two countries in Lebanon the US Embassy urges all US citizens to immediately leave the country similar…
The Wire · 2026-03-09
…The missile was reportedly shot down by a US Navy vessel stationed in the eastern Med. Norway: An explosion was reported at the US Embassy in Oslo, as an unidentified assailant placed an IED at the…
The Wire · 2025-06-19
…US military logistical flights continue throughout the region, and non-essential personnel are still quietly being evacuated from various diplomatic posts (such as the US Embassy in Baghdad). This afternoon the White House stated that President…
The Wire · 2026-02-24
…Otherwise, Government forces have been able to secure the airports, and the US Embassy reported this afternoon that flights have resumed for anyone who so desires to depart. Most of the conflict throughout the past 24…
The Wire · 2026-02-19
…Officially, the US State Department recommends land-border crossings with Armenia and Turkey. The Armenian border crossing in Agarak is still open, and is by far the most reliable means of exiting the country as a…
Intel Update · 2026-02-21
…For example, this morning the US Embassy in Baghdad posted a propaganda poster that basically just throws off the pretense that this is about the Iranian missile or nuclear program. This is about regime change because…
S2 briefing · 2021-08-29
…sneak out they never plan to evacuate any significant number of americans they plan to evacuate the embassy hop on a c-17 at h kaya and leave but they got caught and the videos of…
S2 briefing · 2021-06-23
…unique non-standard situations there might not be much they can do other than calling the local us embassy and handing things off to them better than nothing but the way things are diplomatically these days…
Intel Update · 2021-08-24
…really just anyone with common sense can now see that it would be inadvisable to use the main gate so embassy personnel are now recommending people avoid the the main gate into the airport as the…
The Wire · 2025-06-11
…Reports have emerged indicating that the US Navy base in Bahrain is at an increased defensive posture, and that non-essential staffers and their families are currently being evacuated from the American Embassies in Baghdad, Kuwait…