ATP 2-33.4, page 122

Appendix A A-18 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Facts A-96. A Futures Wheel uses structured brainstorming to move from the COA to secondary and tertiary effects, and potentially beyond. The analyst must first identify the potential COA and place it in the center of the work space. Examples of COAs are funding construction operations, conducting a raid on a mosque, or selling arms to a foreign nation. Figure A-1 is an example of the layout of a Futures Wheel. Figure A-1. Futures wheel example The Method A-97. Creating a Futures Wheel method involves three steps:  Step 1. Once the COA is identified, the analyst brainstorms possible direct consequences of that COA. These consequences should be realistic and within the capabilities of the entities considered. These are first-order effects of the COA.  Step 2. The analyst then uses each of the first-order effects as a jumping point for further brainstorming. These indirect effects of the COA should be realistic, but will not necessarily be traceable directly to the original COA. These are second-order effects. This may be repeated further to determine third, fourth, and further orders of effects.  Step 3. Once the analyst has completed all desired levels of effects, the Futures Wheel will present a clear picture of the possible direct and indirect consequences resulting from a chosen COA. The analyst then considers ways to mitigate and manage negative consequences and provide them as alternatives for the decisionmaker.