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Military manual ATP 2-33.4 Page 123 of 146 text: pdf

ATP 2-33.4, page 123

Intelligence Analysis

Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis

2014 public edition (Archive.org)

Page 123 of ATP 2-33.4
Searchable page text (OCR / PDF)
Emerging Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 A-19 KNOWLEDGE PLANNING A-98. Knowledge planning is a dynamic and collaborative methodology for the identification and satisfaction of critical information needs. Facts A-99. Knowledge planning provides a mechanism for linking operational requirements with information collection strategies and capabilities; that is, linking critical information needs with—  Relevant knowledge centers (Defense intelligence enterprise, intelligence warfighting function).  Collection assets.  Specific target areas.  Operational parametric (time-accuracy-resolution).  Standing collection requirements. The Method A-100. Knowledge planning is comprised of the following steps:  Step 1. Review and refine critical information needs (decisionmaker and operations).  Step 2. Determine priorities (decisionmaker and operations).  Step 3. Determine target areas (decisionmaker and operations).  Step 4. Determine critical information needs priority and time, accuracy, resolution parametrics (decisionmaker and operations).  Step 5. Review and refine information and intelligence requirements (intelligence).  Step 6. Determine requirements (decisionmaker and operations).  Step 7. Determine sensor requirements (intelligence).  Step 8. Determine knowledge center requirements (intelligence).  Step 9. Determine processing and dissemination requirements (intelligence). A-101. An example of knowledge planning would be the development of a knowledge plan for a brigade combat team scheduled to deploy to a foreign country. RULES FOR VERIFICATION A-102. Rules for Verification is a problem-solving methodology designed to establish likelihoods, not certainty, of hypotheses. Facts A-103. Rules for Verification can be applied to situation development (updating intelligence assessments), developing collection strategies, and conducting assessment. The Method A-104. There are seven Rules for Verification commonly used by intelligence personnel:  Rule 1. A hypothesis is more believable when a consequence of that hypothesis is verified. When a piece of evidence is verified that is supportive of the hypothesis, the hypothesis becomes more believable.  Rule 2. The credibility of a hypothesis increases as the different means used to test the hypothesis support it. Hypothesis becomes more creditable when different collection disciplines verify supporting evidence, or different sources within the same discipline.  Rule 3. Confidence in a hypothesis increases as the observable bits of evidence that support the hypothesis bear some proximity to each other.