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Military manual ATP 2-33.4 Page 124 of 146 text: pdf

ATP 2-33.4, page 124

Intelligence Analysis

Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis

2014 public edition (Archive.org)

Page 124 of ATP 2-33.4
Searchable page text (OCR / PDF)
Appendix A A-20 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014  Rule 4. The credibility of a hypothesis is directly proportional to the number of instances in which the hypothesis was supported. Simply put, the more verifiable evidence, the greater the possibility of truth in the hypothesis.  Rule 5. Confidence in a hypothesis increases when an incompatible and rival conjecture is refuted. Very rarely is just one hypothesis considered.  Rule 6. Confidence in a hypothesis increases to the extent that it is consistent with another hypothesis that is highly credible.  Rule 7. In instances in which observables support two different hypotheses, the simpler hypothesis stands a better chance of being true.