ATP 2-33.4, page 124
Intelligence Analysis
Army Techniques Publication: Intelligence Analysis
2014 public edition (Archive.org)
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Appendix A
A-20
ATP 2-33.4
18 August 2014
Rule 4. The credibility of a hypothesis is directly proportional to the number of instances in
which the hypothesis was supported. Simply put, the more verifiable evidence, the greater the
possibility of truth in the hypothesis.
Rule 5. Confidence in a hypothesis increases when an incompatible and rival conjecture is
refuted. Very rarely is just one hypothesis considered.
Rule 6. Confidence in a hypothesis increases to the extent that it is consistent with another
hypothesis that is highly credible.
Rule 7. In instances in which observables support two different hypotheses, the simpler
hypothesis stands a better chance of being true.