saildrone explorer

…Contrarian techniques look at the problem from different (often multiple) perspectives, and in so doing allow analysts to better accept analytic critique and grant greater avenue to explore and challenge analytical arguments and mindsets. Proper technique…

…Analysts are regularly tasked to explore the impact of a proposed operation or COA. In order to avoid compiling a list that is shallow and incomplete, a Futures Wheel provides a structured method and visual tool…

…High impact/low probability allows analysts to explore the consequences of an event not deemed likely by conventional wisdom without having to challenge the mainline analytic judgment or to argue with others about how likely an…

…The purpose of this stage is to explore three-to-five scenarios consistent with the antecedent scenario (and intermediate states) as well as the outcomes common to multiple scenarios. A-45. The key steps of stage…

…They fail to recognize that most of this evidence is also consistent with other explanations or conclusions, and these other alternatives have not been explored. The Method A-83. Simultaneous evaluation of multiple, competing hypotheses is…

… Analysts are prepared to explore a range of outcomes and are not wedded to any preconceived result. A-62. Depending on how elaborate the futures project, the effort can amount to considerable investment in time…

…The sections below describe targets, the two basic types of targeting, and commanders’ responsibilities, all of which are explored further in the following chapters. EFFECTS-BASED APPROACH TO OPERATIONS To understand how targeting forms one pillar…