Chapter 2 Inductive Reasoning 2-6. Inductive reasoning is an approach in which a drawn conclusion is based upon observed facts. It is a process of discovery in which an analyst establishes a relationship between events…

Chapter 3 = Start with the first criterion in the list and compare it to the second criterion. Place a mark (| or ||) next to the criterion selected as the more important between the two. = Compare the first…

Basic Structured Analytic Techniques THE METHOD 3-12. The following are steps for this technique: e@ Step 1. Review the categories the information is broken down into to determine which categories or combination of categories might…

Chapter 2 Intellectual Courage 2-26. Intellectual courage is the disposition to question beliefs you feel strongly about. It includes questioning the beliefs of your culture and the groups to which you belong, and a willingness…

Basic Structured Analytic Techniques THE METHOD 3-29. The general rules of event mapping are— e Start with a blank paper or use a piece of stationery with a re-adherable strip of adhesive on the…

Analytic Skills Table 2-1. Checklist for reasoning [Element | Explanation —~—=SCSCSC~C~“‘“‘SCS*SC‘“‘“‘(CS*SS Purpose All reasoning has a purpose. Failure to identify the purpose causes problems throughout the analytical effort: « Express the purpose…

Basic Structured Analytic Techniques THREAT INTENTIONS MATRIX 3-19. The threat intentions matrix is a technique used to efficiently look at information from the threat’s point of view. It is necessary for the analyst using…

Chapter 4 THE METHOD 4-9. Analyst should routinely consider that their information base is susceptible to deception. The possibility cannot be rejected simply because there is no evidence of deception; if done well, the analyst…

Chapter 3 3-39. The expression of numerical probabilities can mitigate the imprecision of probability phrases (“very likely” or “improbable”). Moreover, numerical probabilities mitigate the potential for analysts to exploit imprecision in favor of their position…

PART TWO Fundamental Task Techniques Chapter 3 Basic Structured Analytic Techniques This chapter describes the basic structured analytical techniques necessary to support problem solving. These techniques include sorting, matrices, threat intentions matrix, event mapping, event trees…

Analytic Skills A Useful Tool in Logic: Occam's Razor The term "Occam's Razor" comes from a misspelling of the name William of Ockham. Ockham was a brilliant theologian, philosopher, and logician in the medieval…

Emerging Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 A-9 partners; in the government domain it might include the policy actions or the behavior of allies or adversaries.  Assess how each of these…

Appendix A A-10 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014  Draft a set of analytic papers in which the leader or group makes specific decisions, proposes recommendations, or lays out COAs. The more these…

…The J-2’s joint intelligence preparation of the operational environment (JIPOE) should include identification of key enemy and neutral leaders, and well as key friendly leaders who are not in the commander’s usual sphere…

…Nonlinear operations place a premium on the communications, intelligence, mobility, and innovative means for sustainment. (a) During nonlinear offensive operations, attacking forces must focus offensive actions against decisive points, while allocating the minimum essential combat power…

…JTT utilizes the Global Command and Control (GCCS) System Integrated Imagery and Intelligence (GCCS-I3) data architecture for connectivity to all components and CCMDs. Digital Imagery Exploitation Engine (DIEE). DIEE is a government off-the-shelf…

Emerging Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 A-3  Are there indicators of possible deception that the assessment failed to address or provide suitable explanation?  Are there any remaining information gaps…