rupert lowe

… High impact/low probability analysis, which discusses what could occur and the resultant consequences.  “What if” analysis, which reframes the question, assuming that the surprise event has occurred and then looks backward to identify…

…Because of CMOC’s low key approach, it was able to steer each organization it touched to greater organization and efficiency. Finally, early development of an exit strategy provided decision points with tangible measures. All parties…

…To extend the targeting enterprise to the edge user base, targeting automation must also be able to accommodate producers and consumers of information on low bandwidth, message-based environments. The following sections detail considerations associated with…

…While information technology can make networks more effective, low technology means (such as couriers, paper messages, and landline telephones) can enable networks to avoid detection and operate effectively in certain circumstances.

… Broadens the analyst’s view of low probability/high impact developments and, in turn, often forces a more objective viewpoint, thus lessening the chances the analyst dismisses or discounts a scenario or key driver based…

…Precautions should be taken to reduce the risk of harm to civilians, other persons, and protected objects.33 According to the LoW, expected incidental damage to civilian objects should not be excessive in relation to the…

…A well-executed counterinsurgency eventually results in only low network-density subgroups. This is because high network-density subgroups require only the capture of one highly connected member to lead police or military forces to the…

…Nodes on the periphery receive very low centrality scores. However, peripheral nodes are often connected to networks that are not currently mapped. The peripheral nodes may be resource gatherers or individuals with their own network outside…

…The steps within “what if” analysis look similar to the steps within the high impact/low probability analytic technique once the analyst has established the event itself:  Step 1. Assume the event has happened or…

…Finally, information and other non-kinetic weapons, as well as the low-intensity transnational nature of the Global War on Terror, have made the possibility of less overt force employment a reality. Things may be happening…

…That is, an excellent source can knowingly and admittedly pass third- or fourth-hand information that may be of low quality. It is important to keep the two reviews separate. This check can— e@ Provide the…

Air Force Doctrine Publication 3-60, Targeting 9 SPECIFIC TARGETING RESTRICTIONS Targeting restrictions under LoW prohibit intentional attacks on civilians, civilian populations, and protected entities such as the wounded, sick, prisoners of war, medical units, religious…

…If the target is low priority, it may be best to place it on a subsequent day’s ATO. If it is of higher priority, COD personnel will determine how best to direct or divert resources…

Appendix A A-4 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 HIGH IMPACT/LOW PROBABILITY A-18. High impact/low probability analysis highlights a seemingly unlikely event that would have a major consequence if it occurred…