sea of

…Reports of thefts or sudden shortages of chemicals, which could be used in the clandestine manufacture of explosives. Reports of large open-market purchases of explosives-related chemicals without an identifiable industrial use. Appearance of manufactured…

…Denies advancing force the use of infrastructure and installations in withdrawal areas. Establishment of a covering force or rear guard. Covers withdrawal of main body; usually consists of a sub- element of the main force; usually…

…Reports of large donations to new or revamped organizations. Reports of payment to locals for engaging in subversive or hostile activities. Reports of the formation of opposition paramilitary or militia organizations. Reports of lists of targets…

Chapter 4 QUALITY OF INFORMATION CHECK 4-20. The quality of information check technique evaluates the completeness and soundness of available information, both independently and in conjunction with sources. If a major analytic assessment is planned…

…Change of residence of suspected agitators or opposition leaders. Discovery of message dead drops. Increased smuggling of currency, gold, gems, narcotics, medical supplies, and arms into urban centers. Appearance of abnormal amounts of counterfeit currency. Increase…

…Commodities indicators Indicators of Negative Food-Related Activities Diversion of crops or meat from markets. Unexplained shortages of food supplies when there are no reports of natural causes. Increased reports of foodstuffs pilfering. Sudden increase in…

…The following can assist when using subjective probability: © Draw a circle and allocate slices of the circle or “pie” where the relative size of the slice of pie for a hypothesis represents how likely the analyst…

…e Leverage the expertise of a group of analysts during the construction of an event tree to ensure all important events, factors, and decision options are considered. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 3-37. Subjective probability is a quantitative…

Chapter 5 5-22 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 the network by serving as the only link between nodes I and J, and the remainder of the network. Node H is an example of…

…Mathematical analysis is the use of simple mathematical ratios to answer intelligence questions. This normally includes the use of ratios or the comparison of gross numbers. The following scenarios show examples of ratio comparisons.

…The key steps of stage three are—  Generate several scenarios derived from the possible consequences of the event occurring. It is recommended the analyst develop three possible scenarios or COAs.  Determine possible consequences of…

Appendix A A-10 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014  Draft a set of analytic papers in which the leader or group makes specific decisions, proposes recommendations, or lays out COAs. The more these…

Chapter IV IV-12 JP 3-0 separate theater of operations) within a single boundary for the purposes of C2, sustainment, protection, or mutual support. A theater of war does not normally encompass a GCC’s…