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…Develop a chain of reasoning based on as much on logic as on evidence to explain how this outcome could have come about.  Step 4. Think backwards from the event in concrete ways, specifying what…

… All incidents are marked on the time-wheel matrix and the calendar.  Noteworthy events may be annotated with footnotes. If the analyst uses this method, the symbol must be marked on both the time…

…The two-dimensional design of matrices limits their use for collating data on complex issues. Leaving out pertinent data easily oversimplifies an issue. Figure 3-1 on page 3-4 matrix shows one method of cross…

…e Persistence on impressions. When evidence is received, there is a tendency to think of connections that explain the evidence. Impressions are based on these connections. Although the evidence eventually may be discredited, the connection remains…

…e In this case there was high uncertainty; depending on what level of reliability one assumed, the analyst could arrive at very different conclusions about a potential Soviet offensive operation. e@ Or when economists assess the…

…For more detailed information on Red Teaming, see the Red Team Handbook, published by the University of Foreign Military and Cultural Studies in Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Analysts may also consider attending one of the Red Team…

…The analyst should assess key reporting based on four sets of criteria: @ Does the threat have the motive, opportunity, and means? = Motive. (What are the threat’s goals?) = Channels. (What means are available?) = Risks. (What are…

…It usually takes one hour to establish the method used to ensure the group is comfortable and able to exhaust the conventional wisdom on the topic. Only then will the truly creative ideas begin to emerge…

Appendix A A-14 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 identify all the reasonable alternatives and evaluate them against each rather than evaluate their plausibility one at a time. A-82. The way most analysts…

…e@ Oversimplification is a generality that fails to adequately account for all the complex conditions bearing on a problem. Oversimplification results when one or more of the complex conditions pertaining to a certain situation is omitted…

…This allows the commander and the staff to challenge the analysis based on objective measures. In doing this, the analyst leverages the experience and analytical skill of the organization’s most senior personnel. BASIC THINKING ABILITIES…

…Fair- mindedness entails a conscious effort to treat all viewpoints alike in spite of one’s own feelings or selfish interests, or the feelings of one’s friends, company, community, or social organization. Questions that foster…

…Whenever we think, we think for a purpose within a point of view based on assumptions leading to implications and consequences. We use concepts, ideas, and theories to interpret data, facts, and experiences in order to…

…It usually takes one hour to set the “rules of the game,” get the group comfortable, and exhaust the conventional wisdom on the topic. Only then will the truly creative ideas begin to emerge.  Involve…

…Confidence in reason is based on the belief that one’s own higher interests and those of humankind are best served by giving the freest play to reason. It means using standards of reasonability as the…

…e Ensure analysts focus on the issue under study. e Force analysts to consider one element at a time in a systematic manner. e Aid analysts in overcoming their logic fallacies and biases. e Ensure analysts…

…2-33.4 ; Department of the Army Washington, DC, 18 August 2014 Intelligence Analysis Contents Page PART ONE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS AND SKILLS Chapter 1 FUNDAMENTALS OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIG...........ccccscssseessssssssessesees Td OVOIVIGWE nn ceversesensesnertsenseaverstnessessunesnnesnsriseneetcenertntavensennetseevenseensenteremneeeneennerens LT The Analytical…

…The diagram with connections between events in a scenario on a radial diagram encourages a brainstorming approach to the event mapping. The large amount of association in event maps promotes creativity in generating new ideas and…

…Basic structured analytic techniques are the starting point for most analysis and are unlikely to provide an answer to intelligence challenges on their own. However, they will provide insight that will support problem solving. The techniques…

…This determination was made on 2 March 2013. Other requests for this document must be referred to ATTN: ATZS-CDI-D, U.S. Army Intelligence Center of Excellence, Fort Huachuca, AZ 85613-7017, or via e…