department of homeland security

…Critical thinking is a deliberate process of thought whose purpose is to improve our thought. The elements of thought (the parts of our thinking) and the standards of thought (the quality of our thinking) 2-2…

…Independent, qualitative or quantitative condition(s) that indicates the achievement of an effect. (AFDD 2-1.9) effect. 1. The physical or behavioral state of a system that results from an action, a set of actions…

…This bias involves the modification and elaboration of new information to fit prior conceptions of hypotheses. The bias is toward confirming a preconceived answer. © Anchoring Bias. This bias involves the use, often unwitting, of arbitrary values…

…The elements are arranged intuitively according to the importance of the concepts and are organized into groups, branches, or areas. The uniform graphic formulation of the semantic structure of information on the method of gathering knowledge…

…Factors used to calculate recuperation times include the availability of spares, backup or alternate replacement functions, operational tempo, expected duration of hostilities, and the enemy’s determination to repair or replace. This requires the integration of…

Glossary GL-10 JP 3-60 target of opportunity. 1. A target identified too late, or not selected for action in time, to be included in deliberate targeting that, when detected or located, meets criteria specific…

…Situational logic is the most common method of intelligence analysis and is sometimes called the area studies approach. This involves generating different hypotheses on the basis of considering concrete elements of the current situation. Broad, global…

…e Leverage the expertise of a group of analysts during the construction of an event tree to ensure all important events, factors, and decision options are considered. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 3-37. Subjective probability is a quantitative…

…Examples of COAs are funding construction operations, conducting a raid on a mosque, or selling arms to a foreign nation. Figure A-1 is an example of the layout of a Futures Wheel. Figure A-1…

…This means moving outside the Army body of doctrine and other Army professional writing when beginning this study. The vast majority of the body of thought concerning critical thinking is spread throughout various civilian professions, particularly…

…Brainstorming, almost by definition, involves a group of analysts meeting to discuss a common challenge. A modest investment of time at the beginning or critical points of a project can take advantage of the group’s…

Glossary GL-18 JP 3-0 directly involved in the conduct of major operations and campaigns involving combat. (Approved for incorporation into JP 1-02.) theater strategy. An overarching construct outlining a combatant commander’s vision…

Glossary GL-8 JP 3-0 physical or behavioral state of a system that is required for the achievement of an objective. (Approved for incorporation into JP 1-02.) conflict. None. (Approved for removal from JP…

Chapter 5 5-6 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Examples of Ratios There were 45 reports this month—15 more than last month. The force ratio is 3:1; 25% of route 1 has…

…Pattern of life analysis is a combination of multiple techniques:  Step 1. Select pattern analysis tools to be used and focus on the target as you construct it.  Step 2. Construct a pattern of…

…Generate a list of indicators or signposts in order to detect the beginnings of the event.  Step 7. Consider the scope of positive and negative consequences and their relative impact.  Step 8. Monitor the…

…A functionally, physically, and/or behaviorally related group of regularly interacting or interdependent elements; that group of elements forming a unified whole. (JP 1-02. SOURCE: JP 3-0) tactical level of war. The level of…

…X X Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Identifying potential actions of threat, neutral, and friendly entities. • Applying theory. • Comparison. • Generation of alternative futures. X X X Applying Theory Analyzing threat, neutral, and friendly entity patterns of behavior…

…Point of View All reasoning is done from some point of view: « Identify your point of view. * Seek points of view from other analysts related to threat and other significant aspects of the operational environments and…

…The following can assist when using subjective probability: © Draw a circle and allocate slices of the circle or “pie” where the relative size of the slice of pie for a hypothesis represents how likely the analyst…