high point

…An enemy force will go to great efforts to deceive us by portraying indications which point to the adoption of a COA that the enemy does not intend to adopt. Enemy forces may use patterns associated…

… Outline the main points and key assumptions and characterize the evidence supporting current analytic view.  Select one or more assumptions that appear the most susceptible to challenge.  Review the data used to determine…

…2-17. There are eight basic elements present in all thinking. Figure 2-1 illustrates these elements. Point of View Purpose frames of reference, J goals, objectives perspectives, orientations Implications and Question at Issue Consequences problem…

…It also requires us to come up with a plausible motivation for the intruder—a motivation that is absent at this point. Either theory would be an adequate and plausible explanation. Both explain the same phenomenon…

…The actions and effects in any causal chain can derive from any element of national power—economic, political/diplomatic, military, or informational, and may occur at any point across the range of operations from peace to…

…The steps within “what if” analysis look similar to the steps within the high impact/low probability analytic technique once the analyst has established the event itself:  Step 1. Assume the event has happened or…

… Broadens the analyst’s view of low probability/high impact developments and, in turn, often forces a more objective viewpoint, thus lessening the chances the analyst dismisses or discounts a scenario or key driver based…

…Often, there are both cumulative and cascading components to effects, as when an enemy unit “breaks” in combat due to accumulated physical and psychological damage, but fails catastrophically at some point, affecting other units around it…

…As an option, add a number on links or decision points in each hypothesis and, on a separate piece of paper, write down the evidence for each number to be collected that would disprove that link…

…Through pattern analysis, intelligence personnel may anticipate future enemy attacks and identify high-payoff targets. Pattern analysis can also be used to refine assessments related to threat characteristics. 5-102. The following four pattern analysis tools…

…It is currently still in use by national-level intelligence analysts in various fields who are required to make judgments on areas where there is a high risk of error when drawing conclusions. ACH is emerging…

…Tainted data negatively affects inductive reasoning; therefore, this reasoning cannot produce absolute truth, only very high probabilities. For example, if a unit’s patrols are being ambushed along route blue from 0500 to 1800 four to…

…Determining this point for an industry or a military target requires detailed analysis of a target’s operation, including idle plant capacity, replacement substitution and expansion capacity, civilian production use, the production of nonessential military items…

…An object is a digital representation of a real-world physical thing, action, or abstraction that serves as a single point of convergence for intelligence production to facilitate analysis. Object-based production (OBP) is the intelligence…

…A modest investment of time at the beginning or critical points of a project can take advantage of the group’s different perspectives to help structure a problem. This group process allows others to build on…

…Analysts identify critical nodes or points in order to exploit the network. 5-54. A network consists of individuals and other elements and connections between them. Individuals in a network are called nodes. A node may…

…Determine what would indicate a decision has been made at each decision point for each option to use in generating an integrated collection plan. e@ Step 7. Assess the implications or after effects of each alternative…

…Additionally, SNA assists in the targeting process by identifying individuals, such as family members and community contacts, for potential targeting to locate the high-value individual (HVI). For example, if the location or phone number of…

…Sometimes there will be very little objective data pointing toward accomplishment. As discussed in the sections on effects, many indirect effects are hard to measure until they happen. Planners and commanders must be patient and counsel…

…A few nodes with a high number of connections can push up the group network density, even though the majority of the people nodes are only marginally linked to the group. In the case of a…