…Conducting pattern analysis is an analytical technique that aids intelligence personnel in determining possible enemy future actions when there is little or no near real-time information available concerning enemy location, disposition, movement, or objectives. For…

…They wander into side issues that may be intellectually satisfying to discuss but have no bearing on the issue or question. © Standard 5—Depth. We think deeply when we get beneath the surface of an issue…

…The analyst must be careful not to assume that events following earlier events are caused by the earlier events; there may be no causal relationship involved. The value of this tool can be reduced if the…

… Never censor an analyst’s ideas no matter how unconventional they might sound.  Find out what prompted the thought, as it might contain the seeds of an important connection between the topic and an…

…Some of the simple rules to be followed include—  Never censor an analyst’s ideas no matter how unconventional they might sound.  Find out what prompted the thought, as it might contain the seeds…

…Like other contrarian methods, “what if” analysis must begin by stating the conventional analytic line and then stepping back to consider what alternative outcomes are too important to dismiss, no matter how unlikely.

…Observe Observation and cataloging of the effect on the target, simply data collection, no assessment or analysis. SUPPORT FUNCTION—When determining what type of activities may take place, consider: Domestic Support Local populace support and supporting…

…For additional information on NSLs and CDE methodology reference CJCSI 3160.01, No Strike and the Collateral Damage Estimation Methodology. Joint force targeting during such situations is driven by the principle of proportionality, so that otherwise…

…It is best used when—  There is little to no information available and surprise conditions are ripe.  There is a need to identify that threat variations exists.  The analyst needs to specifically understand…

…An enemy may use WMD against other multinational partners, especially those with little or no defense against these weapons, to disintegrate the alliance or coalition. (a) Intelligence and other joint staff members advise JFCs of an…

…For example, a lethal weapon might be able to neutralize a particular target’s function, but because the target is located in a country for which we have no (and would not receive approval for) lethal…

…Risk management does not inhibit a commander’s flexibility and initiative; remove risk altogether (or support a zero-defects mindset); dictate a GO/NO-GO decision to take a specific action; sanction or justify violating the…

…Personnel should stay alert even in an operation with little or no perceived risk. JFCs must take measures to prevent complacency and be ready to counter activity that could bring harm to units or jeopardize the…

…A direct effect is the first-order result of action with no intervening mechanism between act and outcome—usually immediate and empirically verifiable, like the results of weapons employment. Indirect effects are more complicated. An indirect…

…Thus the SCA typically has no role in prioritizing the JFC’s day-to-day space force enhancement requirements. The SCA gathers operational requirements that may be satisfied by space capabilities and facilitates the use of…

…There is no prescribed procedure, but the following steps should be followed at a minimum:  Outline the main points and key assumptions and characterize the evidence supporting current analytic view.  Select one or more…

…CDE analysts should apply the specific guidance and data in CJCSI 3160.01D, No-Strike and CDE Methodology. Joint Automated Deep Operations Coordination System (JADOCS). JADOCS is an Army-developed mission management software application used by…

…Other products may include creation of or additions to no-strike or restricted target lists (see “products of the phase,” below). Target research within the tasking cycle often entails studying previously unidentified or unlocated targets. Responsibility…

…CJCSI 3160.01, No-Strike and the Collateral Damage Estimation Methodology details a specific CDE process followed Department of Defense (DOD)-wide. Targets with associated collateral damage concerns expected to exceed theater (combatant command) thresholds are…

…Assessments of NO DAMAGE or DESTROYED are easily defined and understandable. The difficulty comes in subjective judgment specifying the level of damage between these two extremes. Intermediate damage definitions are dependent on target type and the…