true believers

…This is especially true when we have selfish reasons for opposing such views. Fair-minded thinkers try to see the strengths and weaknesses of any reasoning they assess. Fair- mindedness entails a conscious effort to treat…

…Questions that foster intellectual integrity include— ® Do I behave in accordance with what I say I believe, or do I tend to say one thing and do another? e@ = To what extent do I expect the…

…An assumption is a proposition accepted to be true without the availability of fact to support it. Assumptions are layered throughout our thinking and are a necessary part of critical thinking. The availability of fact determines…

…Biases generally have a detrimental impact on intelligence analysis because they obscure the true nature of the information. Intelligence analysts must be able to recognize cultural, organizational, personal, and cognitive biases and be aware of the…

…Critical thinkers listen carefully to statements and, when there is reason for skepticism, they question whether what they hear is true or accurate. A statement describing an implication, assumption, inference, or the very question we are…

…This line of thought asserts that a premise must be true because people have always believed it or done it. Alternatively, it may conclude that the premise has always worked in the past and will thus…

…This is especially true at the lower echelons. If a commander loses reliable communications, he must have subordinates who can act without instructions. Mission command—a key component of the C2 function described in Chapter III…

…e Fallacy of division is committed when a person infers that what is true of a whole must also be true of the parts of that whole. For example, members of the threat guard’s brigade…

…That is, analysts can sometimes believe a foreign leader has the same motives, values, or understanding of an issue that they hold. Traditional analysis sometimes assumes that foreign leaders or groups will behave rationally and act…

…Analysts must consider that an enemy may use deception to portray vivid facts, situations, and capabilities that they want the friendly intelligence effort to believe. © Absence of evidence. Lack of information is the analyst’s most…

…The principal concern here is that if analysts focus mainly on trying to confirm one hypothesis they think is probably true, they can easily be led astray when there is so much evidence to support their…

…A key assumption is any hypothesis that analysts have accepted to be true and which forms the basis of the assessment. For example, military analysis may focus exclusively on analyzing key technical and 4-2 ATP…

…Every conflict is different, but many concepts hold true regardless of where the conflicts are fought. For example, adversaries may use the same aircraft and munitions regardless of theater. Many nations have similar weaponry, even if…

…A deductive argument is sound if its premises are true. However, sound deductive reasoning does not mean the conclusions are true. For example, an analyst who follows the conduct of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks in…

…Additionally, the actions, themes, and messages portrayed by all friendly forces must be consistent if MILDEC is to be believable. (5) SOF may precede forcible entry forces to identify, clarify, and modify conditions in the lodgment…

…But others, as evidenced by Operation RESTORE “Today’s US Armed Forces are, I believe, the most capable in our Nation’s history, and these capabilities provide important strategic advantages with respect to nearly any situation…

…The probability of a given hypothesis is a function of the probabilities of all the scenarios that would support a hypothesis as being true. The probability of a given scenario is a function of all the…

…This is particularly true of units defending key or decisive terrain. Units enhance their survivability using concealment, military deception, decoy or dummy positions, dispersion, and field fortifications. Commanders increase security during defensive preparations because an enemy…

…This is true for planners assigned to both the AIS as well as those assigned to other flights or squadrons in the AIG or AOG. POINT MENSURATION Mensuration is simply the act of precisely measuring something…

…In instances in which observables support two different hypotheses, the simpler hypothesis stands a better chance of being true.