department of education

…Reports of thefts or sudden shortages of chemicals, which could be used in the clandestine manufacture of explosives. Reports of large open-market purchases of explosives-related chemicals without an identifiable industrial use. Appearance of manufactured…

64 Aggregate of TA products: Includes all the results of TA relevant to particular effects and objectives. However, OA may not be able to wait on a complete TA picture before delivering “actionable” advice to commanders…

Chapter 4 QUALITY OF INFORMATION CHECK 4-20. The quality of information check technique evaluates the completeness and soundness of available information, both independently and in conjunction with sources. If a major analytic assessment is planned…

…Analysts should consciously avoid relating the source to the information until the quality of information check is complete. If relating the source to the quality of the information changes the opinion of the information, the analysts…

…The following can assist when using subjective probability: © Draw a circle and allocate slices of the circle or “pie” where the relative size of the slice of pie for a hypothesis represents how likely the analyst…

…Some of these may be direct forms of measurement, like an eyewitness account of a bridge span being down; some may be more circumstantial indicators, such as measurements of traffic backed up behind a downed bridge…

…Campaign planning has its greatest application in the conduct of large-scale combat operations, but can be used across the range of military operations. While intended primarily to guide the use of military power, campaign plans…

Fundamentals of Intelligence Analysis THE ANALYTICAL PROCESS 1-6. Intelligence analysis is the process by which collected information is evaluated and integrated with existing information to produce intelligence. The steps of the all-source intelligence analysis…

The Joint Targeting Cycle II-15 (3) All estimates generated during this phase are situation-specific, reflecting the pairing of forces against targets under particular conditions of employment. As such, users of this information must use…

…The results of the BDA process are provided in three phases of BDAREPs: 1. Phase I reporting contains an initial physical damage assessment of hit or miss based usually upon single source data. Reporting timeline: 1…

40 It is critically important to stress that all estimates generated during this phase are situation-specific, reflecting the pairing of a particular force against a particular target, under a particular condition of employment. As such…

…e Leverage the expertise of a group of analysts during the construction of an event tree to ensure all important events, factors, and decision options are considered. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 3-37. Subjective probability is a quantitative…

The Targeting Assessment Process D-9 target elements means an assessment cell can provide an estimate of success refined with the latest available information. As more definitive data becomes available, the assessment becomes less of an…

57 CHAPTER FOUR ASSESSMENT GENERAL Assessment encompasses all efforts to evaluate effects and gauge progress toward accomplishment of actions, effects, and objectives. It also helps evaluate requirements for future action. It helps answer two questions: “How…

…The key steps of stage three are—  Generate several scenarios derived from the possible consequences of the event occurring. It is recommended the analyst develop three possible scenarios or COAs.  Determine possible consequences of…

…The mission analysis step of JOPP facilitates the development of the commander’s objectives. Theater-strategic and national guidance also shape the commander’s objective(s). An important result of mission analysis is the commander’s…

…Logistic forces, like all other forces, must be capable of self-defense, particularly if they deploy alone or in advance of other military forces. (2) Facilities. JFCs need to plan for the early acquisition (leasing) of…

…Factors used to calculate recuperation times include the availability of spares, backup or alternate replacement functions, operational tempo, expected duration of hostilities, and the enemy’s determination to repair or replace. This requires the integration of…

…The CFC’s broad qualitative and analytical determination of the overall effectiveness of military operations and recommendations for future action › National Assessment: Broad review of the effectiveness of national security strategy and whether national leadership’s…

…Target vetting leverages the expertise of the national intelligence community to verify the fidelity of the intelligence and analysis used to develop the target(s). Target validation determines whether a target remains a viable element of…