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Appendix A A-20 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014  Rule 4. The credibility of a hypothesis is directly proportional to the number of instances in which the hypothesis was supported. Simply put, the…

…While the elements of thought provide a framework for analyzing thinking, the standards of thought provide criteria critical thinkers use to assess 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 2-5 Analytic Skills 18 August 2014…

Emerging Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 A-13 Note. Remember that as indicators are developed to aid in scenario tracking, the analysts may see synergy between certain drivers that may be indicative…

Chapter 5 5-20 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 network to direct the use of the funds into the operational activities of a hub network conducting preliminary targeting surveillance and reconnaissance. 5-71. Whatever…

…18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 3-1 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 3-1 PART TWO Fundamental Task Techniques Chapter 3 Basic Structured Analytic Techniques This chapter describes the basic structured analytical…

Analytic Support to Unique Missions 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 7-3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Figure 7-1. Example of an improvised explosive device activity model Table 7-1. Possible nodes located in…

Core Army Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 5-17 compromise the identity, location, or actions of other cells. Compartmenting functions within organizational structure makes it difficult to penetrate the entire organization. Personnel…

…4-4 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Chapter 4 4-4 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 QUALITY OF INFORMATION CHECK 4-20. The quality of information check technique evaluates the completeness and…

Indicators in Decisive Action 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 B-9 Table B-7. Commodities indicators (continued) Indicators of Negative Arms and Ammunition-Related Activities (continued) Increase in armed robberies. Reports of thefts or…

Chapter 5 5-32 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014  Conversely, if events seem to happen more rapidly than expected, is it possible that the analyst has information related to multiple targets?  Are…

…18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 41 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 4-1 Chapter 4 Diagnostic Analytic Techniques This chapter discusses the diagnostic analytic techniques routinely used by intelligence analysts. It discusses…

Emerging Analytic Techniques 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 A-7 A-39. The key steps of stage one are—  Ask: “How can the event occur?”  Examine causal history. Key on a small…

Appendix A A-6 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 COUNTERFACTUAL REASONING A-33. Counterfactual reasoning is an analytic method that is useful for discovering the relationships between possible events and their most plausible outcomes…

…The elements of thought 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 2-3 Analytic Skills 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 2-3 support critical thinking. Key critical thinking attributes include human traits such as…

18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 5-1 Chapter 5 Core Army Analytic Techniques This chapter discusses the core Army analytic techniques used by intelligence analysts. It also discusses the core analytic techniques used to…

Indicators in Decisive Action 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 B-5 Table B-4. Withdrawal indicators Activity Explanation Systematic destruction of bridges, communication facilities, and other assets. Denies advancing force the use of infrastructure…

…For example, the statement, “If we had not supported Castro 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 2-11 Analytic Skills 18 August 2014 ATP 2-33.4 2-11  Few captured detainees have high…

Appendix A A-4 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 HIGH IMPACT/LOW PROBABILITY A-18. High impact/low probability analysis highlights a seemingly unlikely event that would have a major consequence if it occurred…

…vi ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 vi ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Acknowledgements The critical thinking material has been used with permission from The Foundation for Critical Thinking, www.criticalthinking.org, The…

Appendix B B-4 ATP 2-33.4 18 August 2014 Table B-2. Defensive indicators (continued) Activity Explanation Increased depth from the forward line of troops of artillery and surface- to-surface missile units. Allows…