us state department

…The US may support selected insurgencies that oppose oppressive regimes. The US coordinates this support with its friends and allies. Because support for an insurgency is often covert, many of the operations connected with it are…

Chapter 4 Diagnostic Analytic Techniques This chapter discusses the diagnostic analytic techniques routinely used by intelligence analysts. It discusses in detail the common techniques of deception detection, key assumptions check, quality of information check, indicators, and…

…Reserves provide a quantity of stored resources that may be used when the normal supply of the resource is disrupted. Assessment of reserves depends upon the estimation of the system use or flow rate. The measure…

…In step 3 you identified the evidence and arguments that were most diagnostic, and in step 5 you used these findings to make tentative judgments about the hypotheses. Now, go back and question the few linchpin…

…If directed to plan for the use of nuclear weapons, JFCs typically have two escalating objectives. (a) The first is to deter or prevent the enemy from using WMD. To make opponents understand that friendly forces…

…PR missions use military, diplomatic, and civil efforts to recover and reintegrate isolated personnel. There are five PR tasks (report, locate, support, recover, and reintegrate) necessary to achieve a complete and coordinated recovery of US military…

…In other cases, a maritime HQ may serve as the base of the joint force HQ, or subordinate JFCs or other component commanders may use the C2 and intelligence facilities aboard ship. (3) Transferring C2 from…

…Comparison is used to understand current events by comparing them with historical precedents in the same country or with similar events in other countries. It differs from applying theory in that conclusions are drawn from a…

…The rational use of force relies on the capability to identify adversary entities as a precursor to taking action against them, especially if doing so entails the use of force. CID of all battlespace entities is…

…The following can assist when using an threat intentions matrix: e@ Use the weighted ranking technique for more detailed insight if time allows. e@ Color-code your entries using red for those from the adversarial point…

…The following can assist when using weighted ranking: e@ Use a different color for each criteria and alternative during the pair-ranking to make the choices transparent (easy to review or recreate). e = Ata minimum, it…

…JTT is used to access target details and target lists and to create the JIPTL. JTT utilizes the Global Command and Control (GCCS) System Integrated Imagery and Intelligence (GCCS-I3) data architecture for connectivity to all…

…A Futures Wheel uses structured brainstorming to move from the COA to secondary and tertiary effects, and potentially beyond. The analyst must first identify the potential COA and place it in the center of the work…

…Analysts can use time event charts to help analyze larger scale patterns of such things as activities and relationships. It uses symbols to represent events, dates, and the flow of time. Triangles are used to depict…

…However, deliberate targeting can be used against mobile targets, especially when the target is in a defensive posture and may be in positions for long periods of time. On-call missions can be used against fixed…

…When using subjective probability, it is essential in defining a numerical score and range to ensure all personnel involved understand the meaning of the terms. Table 3-1 shows an example of subjective probability and the…

…Most participants find the process of developing such scenarios as useful as any finished product that attempts to capture the results of the exercise. Analysts and decisionmakers can benefit from this technique in several ways: …

…Critical thinking is a deliberate process of thought used to objectively evaluate data. Critical thinking is the process of analyzing and assessing thinking with a view to improving it. Critical thinking presupposes knowledge of the most…

…Pattern analysis can also be used to refine assessments related to threat characteristics. 5-102. The following four pattern analysis tools may be used concurrently or separately, as the analyst deems appropriate:  Chronologies.  Timelines…

…Consensus building is a primary task and can be aided by understanding each agency’s capabilities and limitations as well as any constraints that may preclude the use of a capability. The goal—to develop and…